Nasarawa United vs Doma United Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

Nasarawa United vs Doma United: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Nasarawa United	Draw	Doma United
Model	53%	29%	18%
Market	—	—	—
Published	53%	29%	18%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 0.77.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Nasarawa United and Doma United expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.48Nasarawa United

0.77Doma United

Total expected goals: 2.25
Attack rating (Nasarawa United / Doma United): 0.92 / 1.19
Defence rating (Nasarawa United / Doma United): 1.06 / 1.10

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Nasarawa United vs Doma United score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.7% 6.9% 3.1% 0.8% 0.2% 1 14.4% 13.2% 4.6% 1.2% 0.3% 2 11.6% 8.9% 3.4% 0.9% 0.2% 3 5.7% 4.4% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 2.9% 2.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Nasarawa United goals. Columns: Doma United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Nasarawa United vs Doma United goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%

Over 1.5 67%

Over 2.5 39%

Over 3.5 19%

Both teams to score: 43%
No goals (0–0): 12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Nasarawa United vs Doma United

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Nasarawa United	53%	1.89
	Draw	29%	3.47
	Doma United	18%	5.49
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	39%	2.55
	Under 2.5	61%	1.64
Both teams to score	Yes	43%	2.34
	No	57%	1.75
Double chance	1X (Nasarawa United or draw)	82%	1.22
	12 (either side)	71%	1.40
	X2 (draw or Doma United)	47%	2.13
Handicap -1	Nasarawa United win by 2+	28%	3.59
	Push (exactly one goal)	25%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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