Niger Tornadoes vs Ikorodu City preview
In the Nigeria Premier Football League, Niger Tornadoes face Ikorodu City with 49% 1X2 probability for a home win, compared to 17% for an away victory. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 19% chance according to our model. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty in the outcome.
Niger Tornadoes have an expected goals figure of 1.19, while Ikorodu City sits at 0.59. The chances for Over 2.5 goals are low at 26%, and both teams to score is also modest at 32%. Recent form shows Niger Tornadoes with mixed results, while Ikorodu City has seen some success but also inconsistency.
Niger Tornadoes vs Ikorodu City: model vs market
| Source | Niger Tornadoes | Draw | Ikorodu City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 33% | 17% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 49% | 33% | 17% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.19 vs 0.59.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Niger Tornadoes and Ikorodu City expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.78
- Attack rating (Niger Tornadoes / Ikorodu City)
- 0.71 / 1.22
- Defence rating (Niger Tornadoes / Ikorodu City)
- 0.79 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Niger Tornadoes vs Ikorodu City score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Niger Tornadoes goals. Columns: Ikorodu City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Niger Tornadoes vs Ikorodu City goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 32%
- No goals (0–0)
- 18%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Niger Tornadoes vs Ikorodu City
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Niger Tornadoes | 49% | 2.02 |
| Draw | 33% | 3.00 | |
| Ikorodu City | 17% | 5.80 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 26% | 3.78 |
| Under 2.5 | 74% | 1.36 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 32% | 3.10 |
| No | 68% | 1.48 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Niger Tornadoes or draw) | 83% | 1.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 67% | 1.50 | |
| X2 (draw or Ikorodu City) | 51% | 1.98 | |
| Handicap -1 | Niger Tornadoes win by 2+ | 23% | 4.42 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Niger Tornadoes and Ikorodu City recent form
Niger Tornadoes
1W 3D 2L
Ikorodu City
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Niger Tornadoes at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Ikorodu City away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Niger Tornadoes at home only, Ikorodu City away only.
Niger Tornadoes vs Ikorodu City head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Niger Tornadoes 1 · draws 0 · Ikorodu City 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | Ikorodu City | 2-0 | Niger Tornadoes | Nigeria Premier Football League |
| 2025-09-21 | Niger Tornadoes | 4-2 | Ikorodu City | Nigeria Premier Football League |
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Before and after this match
- Niger Tornadoes, previous: Ranchers Bees vs Niger Tornadoes: odds and pick
- Ikorodu City, previous: Ikorodu City vs Kwara United prediction