Updated

Nigeria Premier Football League · Matchday 9

Shooting Stars vs Ranchers Bees

· Lekan Salami Stadium, Ibadan

Full time3 – 1

Alin prediction was Shooting Stars to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

18% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Shooting StarsDrawRanchers Bees

Shooting Stars vs Ranchers Bees: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceShooting StarsDrawRanchers Bees
Model49%33%18%
Market61%26%13%
Published58%28%14%
Edge-12%+6%+6%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.23 vs 0.64.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Shooting Stars and Ranchers Bees expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.23Shooting Stars
0.64Ranchers Bees
Total expected goals
1.88
Attack rating (Shooting Stars / Ranchers Bees)
0.79 / 0.94
Defence rating (Shooting Stars / Ranchers Bees)
1.12 / 1.04

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Shooting Stars vs Ranchers Bees score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 16.5% 8.7% 3.2% 0.7% 0.1% 1 17.6% 13.4% 3.9% 0.8% 0.2% 2 11.6% 7.5% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 3 4.8% 3.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 1.9% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Shooting Stars goals. Columns: Ranchers Bees goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Shooting Stars vs Ranchers Bees goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 83%
Over 1.5 57%
Over 2.5 29%
Over 3.5 12%
Both teams to score
35%
No goals (0–0)
17%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Shooting Stars vs Ranchers Bees

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Shooting Stars58%1.72
Draw28%3.61
Ranchers Bees14%7.11
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.529%3.45
Under 2.571%1.41
Both teams to scoreYes35%2.87
No65%1.54
Double chance1X (Shooting Stars or draw)86%1.16
12 (either side)72%1.38
X2 (draw or Ranchers Bees)42%2.39
Handicap -1Shooting Stars win by 2+23%4.34
Push (exactly one goal)26%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Shooting Stars and Ranchers Bees recent form

Shooting Stars 1W 2D 3L
Ranchers Bees 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Shooting Stars at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.25
Clean sheets
3 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.

Ranchers Bees away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-4
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.75
Goals against / match
2.25
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Shooting Stars at home only, Ranchers Bees away only.

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match