Haugesund vs Stabaek: model vs market
| Source | Haugesund | Draw | Stabaek |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61% | 18% | 21% |
| Market | 51% | 22% | 27% |
| Published | 53% | 21% | 26% |
| Edge | +10% | -4% | -6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.78 vs 1.65.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Haugesund below the model: +10.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Haugesund vs Stabaek odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Haugesund, 15 snapshots since 2026-09-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Haugesund | 1.85 | 1.83 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 4.03 | 4.20 | +0.17 |
| Stabaek | 3.31 | 3.40 | +0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Haugesund and Stabaek expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.44
- Attack rating (Haugesund / Stabaek)
- 1.70 / 1.21
- Defence rating (Haugesund / Stabaek)
- 0.85 / 0.87
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Haugesund vs Stabaek score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Haugesund goals. Columns: Stabaek goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Haugesund vs Stabaek goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 76%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Haugesund vs Stabaek
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Haugesund | 53% | 1.88 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.73 | |
| Stabaek | 26% | 3.90 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82% | 1.22 |
| Under 2.5 | 18% | 5.55 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76% | 1.31 |
| No | 24% | 4.25 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Haugesund or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Stabaek) | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Handicap -1 | Haugesund win by 2+ | 42% | 2.39 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Haugesund and Stabaek recent form
Haugesund
6W 0D 0L
Stabaek
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Haugesund at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-1-1
- Win rate
- 82%
- Goals for / match
- 3.18
- Goals against / match
- 1.18
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 11
- They have won 17 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 3.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
Stabaek away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-3-4
- Win rate
- 42%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 12
- They have won 14 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Haugesund at home only, Stabaek away only.
Haugesund vs Stabaek head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: Haugesund 2 · draws 1 · Stabaek 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Stabaek | 3-2 | Haugesund | Norway 1. Division |
| 2025-05-07 | Stabaek | 2-1 | Haugesund | NM Cupen |
| 2023-12-03 | Haugesund | 3-0 | Stabaek | Eliteserien |
| 2023-04-23 | Stabaek | 3-0 | Haugesund | Eliteserien |
| 2021-10-31 | Stabaek | 2-1 | Haugesund | Eliteserien |
| 2021-05-24 | Haugesund | 0-0 | Stabaek | Eliteserien |
| 2020-09-12 | Stabaek | 2-1 | Haugesund | Eliteserien |
| 2020-08-02 | Haugesund | 3-1 | Stabaek | Eliteserien |
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