Moss vs Kongsvinger: model vs market
| Source | Moss | Draw | Kongsvinger |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14% | 13% | 73% |
| Market | 21% | 20% | 59% |
| Published | 20% | 18% | 62% |
| Edge | -7% | -7% | +14% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.79 vs 1.81.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Kongsvinger below the model: +14.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Moss vs Kongsvinger odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Kongsvinger, 20 snapshots since 2026-09-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moss | 3.77 | 4.30 | +0.52 |
| Draw | 4.31 | 4.60 | +0.29 |
| Kongsvinger | 1.71 | 1.57 | -0.14 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Moss and Kongsvinger expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 5.60
- Attack rating (Moss / Kongsvinger)
- 0.98 / 2.10
- Defence rating (Moss / Kongsvinger)
- 1.12 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Moss vs Kongsvinger score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Moss goals. Columns: Kongsvinger goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Moss vs Kongsvinger goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 82%
- No goals (0–0)
- 1%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Moss vs Kongsvinger
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Moss | 20% | 5.12 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.48 | |
| Kongsvinger | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 92% | 1.09 |
| Under 2.5 | 8% | 12.13 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 82% | 1.22 |
| No | 18% | 5.58 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Moss or draw) | 38% | 2.65 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or Kongsvinger) | 80% | 1.24 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kongsvinger win by 2+ | 57% | 1.75 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Moss and Kongsvinger recent form
Moss
2W 2D 2L
Kongsvinger
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Moss at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-4-5
- Win rate
- 18%
- Goals for / match
- 1.55
- Goals against / match
- 2.18
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 11
- They have won 7 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kongsvinger away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-3-2
- Win rate
- 55%
- Goals for / match
- 2.09
- Goals against / match
- 1.27
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 11
- They have won 15 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- They average 3.8 goals per game at home against 2.1 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Moss at home only, Kongsvinger away only.
Moss vs Kongsvinger head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Moss 4 · draws 1 · Kongsvinger 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Kongsvinger | 2-1 | Moss | Norway 1. Division |
| 2025-10-18 | Moss | 2-4 | Kongsvinger | Norway 1. Division |
| 2025-04-21 | Kongsvinger | 6-0 | Moss | Norway 1. Division |
| 2024-12-01 | Moss | 3-2 | Kongsvinger | 1. Division |
| 2024-09-16 | Kongsvinger | 0-0 | Moss | 1. Division |
| 2024-07-20 | Moss | 1-0 | Kongsvinger | 1. Division |
| 2023-11-12 | Kongsvinger | 1-2 | Moss | 1. Division |
| 2023-06-25 | Moss | 0-1 | Kongsvinger | 1. Division |
| 2023-03-18 | Kongsvinger | 0-1 | Moss | Friendlies Clubs |
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