Ranheim vs Egersund: model vs market
| Source | Ranheim | Draw | Egersund |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 18% | 24% |
| Market | 47% | 22% | 30% |
| Published | 50% | 21% | 29% |
| Edge | +11% | -5% | -6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.92 vs 1.94.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Ranheim below the model: +10.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Ranheim vs Egersund odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Ranheim, 14 snapshots since 2026-09-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ranheim | 2.06 | 1.95 | -0.11 |
| Draw | 3.95 | 4.10 | +0.15 |
| Egersund | 2.88 | 3.04 | +0.17 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Ranheim and Egersund expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.85
- Attack rating (Ranheim / Egersund)
- 1.34 / 1.01
- Defence rating (Ranheim / Egersund)
- 1.19 / 1.16
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ranheim vs Egersund score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ranheim goals. Columns: Egersund goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ranheim vs Egersund goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 81%
- No goals (0–0)
- 1%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ranheim vs Egersund
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ranheim | 50% | 2.00 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.69 | |
| Egersund | 29% | 3.48 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 86% | 1.16 |
| Under 2.5 | 14% | 7.27 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 81% | 1.23 |
| No | 19% | 5.37 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ranheim or draw) | 71% | 1.40 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Egersund) | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ranheim win by 2+ | 40% | 2.52 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Ranheim and Egersund recent form
Ranheim
2W 2D 2L
Egersund
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ranheim at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-3-4
- Win rate
- 42%
- Goals for / match
- 2.83
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 12
- They have won 8 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Egersund away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-7
- Win rate
- 18%
- Goals for / match
- 1.55
- Goals against / match
- 2.55
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 11
- They have won 8 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Ranheim at home only, Egersund away only.
Ranheim vs Egersund head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Ranheim 2 · draws 1 · Egersund 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | Egersund | 3-0 | Ranheim | Norway 1. Division |
| 2025-11-22 | Egersund | 3-2 | Ranheim | Norway 1. Division |
| 2025-10-04 | Ranheim | 0-4 | Egersund | Norway 1. Division |
| 2025-06-15 | Egersund | 3-4 | Ranheim | Norway 1. Division |
| 2025-05-07 | Ranheim | 2-2 | Egersund | NM Cupen |
| 2024-09-16 | Egersund | 0-2 | Ranheim | 1. Division |
| 2024-05-11 | Ranheim | 1-3 | Egersund | 1. Division |
Other Matchday 24 fixtures
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- Stromsgodset vs Asane — team news & stats 2026-10-03
- Haugesund vs Stabaek 2026-10-03
- hodd vs ODD Ballklubb — team news & stats 2026-10-03
- Bryne vs Lyn 2026-10-04
- Moss v Kongsvinger — match page 2026-10-05