Arsenal vs Everton preview
In the Premier League fixture between Arsenal and Everton, Arsenal has a strong 66% chance to win, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 at 10%. The model suggests a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 61%. Arsenal's expected goals stand at 2.11, while Everton's is significantly lower at 1.09.
However, Everton's recent form shows some resilience, with 2 wins and 2 draws in their last 6 matches. This could challenge Arsenal's dominance, especially considering their head-to-head record of 4 wins and 2 draws in the last 6 encounters. If Everton can capitalize on their opportunities, they may disrupt Arsenal's expected performance.
Why this pick: Arsenal vs Everton
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Arsenal 10, Everton 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Arsenal vs Everton: model vs market
| Source | Arsenal | Draw | Everton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 24% | 18% |
| Market | 68% | 20% | 11% |
| Published | 66% | 21% | 13% |
| Edge | -10% | +3% | +7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 1.08.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.43, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update.
Arsenal vs Everton odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Arsenal, 18 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 1.37 | 1.40 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 4.70 | 4.67 | -0.03 |
| Everton | 7.00 | 8.50 | +1.50 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Arsenal and Everton expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.03
- Attack rating (Arsenal / Everton)
- 1.34 / 1.16
- Defence rating (Arsenal / Everton)
- 0.75 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Arsenal vs Everton score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Arsenal goals. Columns: Everton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Arsenal vs Everton goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Arsenal vs Everton
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arsenal | 66% | 1.52 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.70 | |
| Everton | 13% | 7.76 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.53 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.70 |
| No | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Arsenal or draw) | 87% | 1.15 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Everton) | 34% | 2.93 | |
| Handicap -1 | Arsenal win by 2+ | 36% | 2.75 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Arsenal and Everton recent form
Arsenal
5W 0D 1L
Everton
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Arsenal at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Everton away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Arsenal at home only, Everton away only.
Arsenal vs Everton head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Arsenal 4 · draws 2 · Everton 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Arsenal | 2-0 | Everton | Premier League |
| 2025-12-20 | Everton | 0-1 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 2025-04-05 | Everton | 1-1 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 2024-12-14 | Arsenal | 0-0 | Everton | Premier League |
| 2024-05-19 | Arsenal | 2-1 | Everton | Premier League |
| 2023-09-17 | Everton | 0-1 | Arsenal | Premier League |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Ipswich v Nottingham Forest — match page 2026-10-23
- Aston Villa vs Manchester City — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Coventry vs Fulham — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Chelsea vs Tottenham 2026-10-24
- Liverpool vs Brighton 2026-10-25
- Manchester United v Bournemouth — match page 2026-10-25
- Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Hull City vs Brentford 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Arsenal, previous: Bayern Munich – Arsenal, 2026-10-21
- Arsenal, next: Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal: odds and pick
- Everton, previous: Everton – Chelsea, 2026-10-17
- Everton, next: Everton – Newcastle United, 2026-10-29