Al Ahli Doha vs Al Wakrah Prediction & Betting Tips 16/10/2026

Al Ahli Doha vs Al Wakrah preview

In the Stars League fixture on 2026-10-16, Al Ahli Doha faces Al Wakrah with 37% probability for Al Ahli Doha to win, 23% for a draw, and 40% for Al Wakrah to win. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with both teams expected to score, reflected in the 74% chance for "both teams to score" and "Over 2.5 goals."

Al Ahli Doha has an expected goals figure of 1.88, while Al Wakrah is slightly higher at 1.95. Recent form shows Al Ahli Doha with 3 wins in their last 6 matches, while Al Wakrah has also shown resilience with 3 wins in their last 6. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating uncertainty in the outcome.

Al Ahli Doha vs Al Wakrah: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Al Ahli Doha	Draw	Al Wakrah
Model	37%	23%	40%
Market	—	—	—
Published	37%	23%	40%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Al Ahli Doha and Al Wakrah expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.87Al Ahli Doha

1.96Al Wakrah

Total expected goals: 3.83
Attack rating (Al Ahli Doha / Al Wakrah): 0.99 / 1.07
Defence rating (Al Ahli Doha / Al Wakrah): 1.10 / 1.12

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Al Ahli Doha vs Al Wakrah score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.0% 3.5% 4.2% 2.7% 2.1% 1 3.3% 8.8% 7.8% 5.1% 3.9% 2 3.8% 7.4% 7.3% 4.8% 3.7% 3 2.4% 4.6% 4.5% 3.0% 2.3% 4+ 1.7% 3.3% 3.2% 2.1% 1.6%

Rows: Al Ahli Doha goals. Columns: Al Wakrah goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Al Ahli Doha vs Al Wakrah goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 90%

Over 2.5 74%

Over 3.5 53%

Both teams to score: 73%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Al Ahli Doha vs Al Wakrah

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Al Ahli Doha	37%	2.72
	Draw	23%	4.39
	Al Wakrah	40%	2.47
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	74%	1.36
	Under 2.5	26%	3.79
Both teams to score	Yes	73%	1.36
	No	27%	3.77
Double chance	1X (Al Ahli Doha or draw)	60%	1.68
	12 (either side)	77%	1.29
	X2 (draw or Al Wakrah)	63%	1.58
Handicap -1	Al Wakrah win by 2+	23%	4.41
	Push (exactly one goal)	18%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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