Al Sadd vs Al-Duhail SC Prediction & Betting Tips 16/10/2026

Al Sadd vs Al-Duhail SC preview

In the Stars League fixture between Al Sadd and Al-Duhail SC, the 1X2 probabilities show Al Sadd at 44%, a draw at 22%, and Al-Duhail SC at 34%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs with an 8% probability. Both teams have strong attacking potential, with expected goals of 2.09 for Al Sadd and 1.85 for Al-Duhail SC.

Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 75%, indicating a high chance of a lively match. However, Al Sadd's recent form, with six consecutive wins, could skew the outcome. Al-Duhail SC's recent results include two draws, which might limit their scoring ability.

Al Sadd vs Al-Duhail SC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Al Sadd	Draw	Al-Duhail SC
Model	39%	22%	39%
Market	—	—	—
Published	39%	22%	39%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Al Sadd and Al-Duhail SC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.98Al Sadd

2.00Al-Duhail SC

Total expected goals: 3.98
Attack rating (Al Sadd / Al-Duhail SC): 1.73 / 1.12
Defence rating (Al Sadd / Al-Duhail SC): 1.07 / 0.68

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Al Sadd vs Al-Duhail SC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.6% 3.0% 3.7% 2.5% 2.0% 1 3.0% 8.1% 7.4% 4.9% 3.9% 2 3.7% 7.3% 7.3% 4.9% 3.8% 3 2.4% 4.9% 4.8% 3.2% 2.5% 4+ 1.9% 3.8% 3.8% 2.5% 2.0%

Rows: Al Sadd goals. Columns: Al-Duhail SC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Al Sadd vs Al-Duhail SC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 91%

Over 2.5 76%

Over 3.5 56%

Both teams to score: 75%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Al Sadd vs Al-Duhail SC

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Al Sadd	39%	2.59
	Draw	22%	4.50
	Al-Duhail SC	39%	2.56
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	76%	1.32
	Under 2.5	24%	4.15
Both teams to score	Yes	75%	1.33
	No	25%	4.04
Double chance	1X (Al Sadd or draw)	61%	1.64
	12 (either side)	78%	1.29
	X2 (draw or Al-Duhail SC)	61%	1.63
Handicap -1	Al-Duhail SC win by 2+	22%	4.57
	Push (exactly one goal)	17%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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