Al-Rayyan SC vs Al-Gharafa Prediction & Betting Tips 16/10/2026

Al-Rayyan SC vs Al-Gharafa preview

In the Stars League fixture between Al-Rayyan SC and Al-Gharafa, the 1X2 probabilities show Al-Rayyan SC at 71%, while Al-Gharafa sits at just 11%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a probability of 11%. Al-Rayyan SC has strong recent form, winning 6 of their last 6 matches, while Al-Gharafa has struggled, with only 1 win in their last 6 games.

The expected goals indicate a significant difference, with Al-Rayyan SC at 2.40 and Al-Gharafa at 0.87. There is a 63% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance for both teams to score. However, Al-Gharafa has won both of their last two head-to-head matches against Al-Rayyan SC, which could impact the outcome.

Al-Rayyan SC vs Al-Gharafa: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Al-Rayyan SC	Draw	Al-Gharafa
Model	73%	17%	9%
Market	—	—	—
Published	73%	17%	9%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.47 vs 0.80.
Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Al-Rayyan SC and Al-Gharafa expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.47Al-Rayyan SC

0.80Al-Gharafa

Total expected goals: 3.27
Attack rating (Al-Rayyan SC / Al-Gharafa): 1.19 / 0.82
Defence rating (Al-Rayyan SC / Al-Gharafa): 0.58 / 1.23

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Al-Rayyan SC vs Al-Gharafa score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.5% 2.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 1 8.6% 8.3% 3.0% 0.8% 0.2% 2 11.6% 9.3% 3.7% 1.0% 0.2% 3 9.5% 7.6% 3.1% 0.8% 0.2% 4+ 10.6% 8.5% 3.4% 0.9% 0.2%

Rows: Al-Rayyan SC goals. Columns: Al-Gharafa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Al-Rayyan SC vs Al-Gharafa goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 85%

Over 2.5 64%

Over 3.5 41%

Both teams to score: 51%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Al-Rayyan SC vs Al-Gharafa

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Al-Rayyan SC	73%	1.37
	Draw	17%	5.73
	Al-Gharafa	9%	10.66
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	64%	1.57
	Under 2.5	36%	2.74
Both teams to score	Yes	51%	1.95
	No	49%	2.05
Double chance	1X (Al-Rayyan SC or draw)	91%	1.10
	12 (either side)	83%	1.21
	X2 (draw or Al-Gharafa)	27%	3.73
Handicap -1	Al-Rayyan SC win by 2+	52%	1.94
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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