Al Shahaniya vs Al-Arabi SC Prediction & Betting Tips 16/10/2026

Al Shahaniya vs Al-Arabi SC preview

In the Stars League fixture between Al Shahaniya and Al-Arabi SC, the 1X2 probabilities show Al-Arabi SC at 38% and Al Shahaniya at 34%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-2, which has a 9% chance of occurring.

Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Al Shahaniya recording 2 wins in their last 5 matches, while Al-Arabi SC has only 1 win in their last 6. The expected goals suggest a close contest, with Al Shahaniya at 1.34 and Al-Arabi SC at 1.42. With Over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 57%, factors like defensive errors or a lack of finishing could impact these predictions.

Al Shahaniya vs Al-Arabi SC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Al Shahaniya	Draw	Al-Arabi SC
Model	33%	26%	41%
Market	—	—	—
Published	33%	26%	41%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Al Shahaniya and Al-Arabi SC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.43Al Shahaniya

1.61Al-Arabi SC

Total expected goals: 3.05
Attack rating (Al Shahaniya / Al-Arabi SC): 1.01 / 0.90
Defence rating (Al Shahaniya / Al-Arabi SC): 1.07 / 0.84

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Al Shahaniya vs Al-Arabi SC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.9% 6.6% 6.2% 3.3% 1.9% 1 5.7% 12.1% 8.9% 4.8% 2.8% 2 4.9% 7.9% 6.4% 3.4% 2.0% 3 2.3% 3.8% 3.0% 1.6% 0.9% 4+ 1.1% 1.8% 1.5% 0.8% 0.5%

Rows: Al Shahaniya goals. Columns: Al-Arabi SC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Al Shahaniya vs Al-Arabi SC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%

Over 1.5 82%

Over 2.5 59%

Over 3.5 36%

Both teams to score: 62%
No goals (0–0): 6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Al Shahaniya vs Al-Arabi SC

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Al Shahaniya	33%	3.03
	Draw	26%	3.82
	Al-Arabi SC	41%	2.45
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	59%	1.70
	Under 2.5	41%	2.42
Both teams to score	Yes	62%	1.61
	No	38%	2.64
Double chance	1X (Al Shahaniya or draw)	59%	1.69
	12 (either side)	74%	1.35
	X2 (draw or Al-Arabi SC)	67%	1.49
Handicap -1	Al-Arabi SC win by 2+	21%	4.70
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
2	First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day Live betting around the clock 30+ markets on live events	Get offer
3	100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.	M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits Live in-play betting Android and iOS app	Get offer
4	200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day 30+ markets on live events 24/7 customer support	Get offer