Al-Duhail SC vs Lusail City preview
In the upcoming match between Al-Duhail SC and Lusail City, the 1X2 probabilities show Al-Duhail SC at 44%, Lusail City at 26%, and a draw at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a probability of 11%. Al-Duhail SC has an expected goals figure of 1.36, compared to Lusail City's 1.00, indicating a stronger attacking performance.
However, the potential for both teams to score stands at 48%, which suggests that Lusail City could find the net. Additionally, the model predicts a 42% chance for Over 2.5 goals, meaning a higher-scoring game is also possible. With a confidence grade of C, this match presents some uncertainty in the outcomes.
Al-Duhail SC vs Lusail City: model vs market
| Source | Al-Duhail SC | Draw | Lusail City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 30% | 26% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 44% | 30% | 26% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.36 vs 1.00.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Al-Duhail SC and Lusail City expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.37
- Attack rating (Al-Duhail SC / Lusail City)
- 1.18 / 0.79
- Defence rating (Al-Duhail SC / Lusail City)
- 0.75 / 0.70
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al-Duhail SC vs Lusail City score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al-Duhail SC goals. Columns: Lusail City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al-Duhail SC vs Lusail City goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al-Duhail SC vs Lusail City
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Duhail SC | 44% | 2.29 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.35 | |
| Lusail City | 26% | 3.79 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.37 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.06 |
| No | 52% | 1.94 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al-Duhail SC or draw) | 74% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Lusail City) | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Duhail SC win by 2+ | 21% | 4.70 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Al-Duhail SC and Lusail City recent form
Al-Duhail SC
3W 3D 0L
Lusail City
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al-Duhail SC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lusail City away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Al-Duhail SC at home only, Lusail City away only.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Al Shahaniya vs Al Sadd 2026-10-22
- Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha 2026-10-22
- Al Shamal vs Qatar SC — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Al-Sailiya v Al-Rayyan SC — match page 2026-10-23
- Al Wakrah vs Al-Arabi SC — team news & stats 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Al-Duhail SC, previous: Al Sadd vs Al-Duhail SC: odds and pick
- Lusail City, previous: Lusail City vs Al Shamal: odds and pick