Al Shamal vs Qatar SC preview
In the Stars League fixture on 2026-10-23, Al Shamal has a 51% chance of winning against Qatar SC, who has a 26% probability. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with Al Shamal expected to score 1.58 goals and Qatar SC 1.36.
Both teams to score stands at 60%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 56%. Al Shamal's recent form shows 2 wins and 3 draws, while Qatar SC has not won in their last 5 matches, recording 3 draws and 2 losses. The head-to-head record favors Qatar SC with 6 wins in the last 10 encounters, which could influence the outcome.
Al Shamal vs Qatar SC: model vs market
| Source | Al Shamal | Draw | Qatar SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Market | 52% | 23% | 24% |
| Published | 50% | 24% | 26% |
| Edge | -11% | +4% | +7% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.82, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Al Shamal vs Qatar SC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Al Shamal, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Shamal | 1.69 | 1.73 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 4.05 | 3.92 | -0.13 |
| Qatar SC | 3.83 | 3.70 | -0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Al Shamal and Qatar SC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.94
- Attack rating (Al Shamal / Qatar SC)
- 0.85 / 0.82
- Defence rating (Al Shamal / Qatar SC)
- 1.00 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al Shamal vs Qatar SC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al Shamal goals. Columns: Qatar SC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al Shamal vs Qatar SC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al Shamal vs Qatar SC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Shamal | 50% | 2.01 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.16 | |
| Qatar SC | 26% | 3.80 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.66 |
| No | 40% | 2.51 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al Shamal or draw) | 74% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Qatar SC) | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al Shamal win by 2+ | 21% | 4.67 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Al Shamal and Qatar SC recent form
Al Shamal
2W 3D 1L
Qatar SC
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al Shamal at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Qatar SC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Al Shamal at home only, Qatar SC away only.
Al Shamal vs Qatar SC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Al Shamal 3 · draws 1 · Qatar SC 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | Al Shamal | 0-2 | Qatar SC | Stars League |
| 2026-02-13 | Al Shamal | 2-1 | Qatar SC | Emir Cup |
| 2025-09-27 | Qatar SC | 1-1 | Al Shamal | Stars League |
| 2025-01-30 | Qatar SC | 2-1 | Al Shamal | Stars League |
| 2024-08-22 | Al Shamal | 0-1 | Qatar SC | Stars League |
| 2024-04-06 | Al Shamal | 1-2 | Qatar SC | Stars League |
| 2023-11-24 | Qatar SC | 0-2 | Al Shamal | Stars League |
| 2023-03-02 | Al Shamal | 3-0 | Qatar SC | Stars League |
| 2022-08-29 | Qatar SC | 1-0 | Al Shamal | Stars League |
| 2022-02-13 | Qatar SC | 2-1 | Al Shamal | Emir Cup |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Al Shahaniya vs Al Sadd 2026-10-22
- Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha 2026-10-22
- Al-Sailiya v Al-Rayyan SC — match page 2026-10-23
- Al Wakrah vs Al-Arabi SC — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Al-Duhail SC v Lusail City — match page 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Al Shamal, previous: Lusail City vs Al Shamal: odds and pick
- Qatar SC, previous: Al-Sailiya v Qatar SC analysis