Al Shahaniya vs Al Sadd preview
In the Stars League fixture between Al Shahaniya and Al Sadd, the 1X2 probabilities show Al Shahaniya at 13%, a draw at 16%, and Al Sadd leading at 71%. The most likely scoreline is 1-3, with a 7% chance. Al Sadd's expected goals stand at 3.43, while Al Shahaniya's is 1.71, indicating a potential for a high-scoring match.
The model predicts an 89% chance of Over 2.5 goals and an 80% likelihood for both teams to score. However, Al Shahaniya's recent form includes two wins in their last six matches, which could affect their performance against a strong Al Sadd side that has won five of their last six games.
Al Shahaniya vs Al Sadd: model vs market
| Source | Al Shahaniya | Draw | Al Sadd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 15% | 15% | 70% |
| Market | 13% | 17% | 70% |
| Published | 14% | 17% | 70% |
| Edge | +2% | -3% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.43 vs 1.71.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.37, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Al Shahaniya vs Al Sadd odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Al Sadd, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Shahaniya | 7.50 | 6.93 | -0.57 |
| Draw | 5.40 | 5.25 | -0.15 |
| Al Sadd | 1.26 | 1.30 | +0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Al Shahaniya and Al Sadd expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 5.14
- Attack rating (Al Shahaniya / Al Sadd)
- 0.89 / 1.68
- Defence rating (Al Shahaniya / Al Sadd)
- 1.21 / 1.16
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al Shahaniya vs Al Sadd score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al Shahaniya goals. Columns: Al Sadd goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al Shahaniya vs Al Sadd goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 80%
- No goals (0–0)
- 1%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al Shahaniya vs Al Sadd
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Shahaniya | 14% | 7.31 |
| Draw | 17% | 6.03 | |
| Al Sadd | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 89% | 1.13 |
| Under 2.5 | 11% | 8.81 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80% | 1.26 |
| No | 20% | 4.91 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al Shahaniya or draw) | 30% | 3.30 |
| 12 (either side) | 83% | 1.20 | |
| X2 (draw or Al Sadd) | 86% | 1.16 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al Sadd win by 2+ | 53% | 1.90 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Al Shahaniya and Al Sadd recent form
Al Shahaniya
2W 1D 3L
Al Sadd
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al Shahaniya at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Al Sadd away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 6.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 3.8 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Al Shahaniya at home only, Al Sadd away only.
Al Shahaniya vs Al Sadd head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Al Shahaniya 2 · draws 0 · Al Sadd 8.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-05 | Al Sadd | 4-0 | Al Shahaniya | Stars League |
| 2025-10-28 | Al Sadd | 1-2 | Al Shahaniya | QSL Cup |
| 2025-09-12 | Al Shahaniya | 1-0 | Al Sadd | Stars League |
| 2025-03-07 | Al Shahaniya | 0-5 | Al Sadd | Stars League |
| 2024-10-18 | Al Sadd | 4-2 | Al Shahaniya | Stars League |
| 2023-04-24 | Al Sadd | 5-1 | Al Shahaniya | Emir Cup |
| 2020-01-25 | Al Sadd | 4-2 | Al Shahaniya | Stars League |
| 2019-11-15 | Al Sadd | 3-1 | Al Shahaniya | QSL Cup |
| 2019-08-31 | Al Shahaniya | 1-7 | Al Sadd | Stars League |
| 2018-12-07 | Al Shahaniya | 1-4 | Al Sadd | Stars League |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha 2026-10-22
- Al Shamal vs Qatar SC — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Al-Sailiya v Al-Rayyan SC — match page 2026-10-23
- Al Wakrah vs Al-Arabi SC — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Al-Duhail SC v Lusail City — match page 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Al Shahaniya, previous: Al Shahaniya v Al-Arabi SC analysis
- Al Sadd, previous: Al Sadd vs Al-Duhail SC: odds and pick