Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha preview
In the Stars League fixture on 2026-10-22, Al-Gharafa faces Al Ahli Doha with both teams having a 38% chance of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs 6% of the time in our predictions. Al-Gharafa has an expected goals figure of 1.32, while Al Ahli Doha stands at 2.02, suggesting a potentially high-scoring match.
With a 65% probability for Over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance for both teams to score, the match could see multiple goals. However, Al-Gharafa's recent form shows just 1 win in 6 matches, which could impact their performance against a more inconsistent Al Ahli Doha side.
Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha: model vs market
| Source | Al-Gharafa | Draw | Al Ahli Doha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24% | 23% | 53% |
| Market | 43% | 24% | 33% |
| Published | 38% | 24% | 38% |
| Edge | -19% | -1% | +20% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.18, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Al-Gharafa, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-21.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Gharafa | 2.12 | 2.12 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.75 | +0.00 |
| Al Ahli Doha | 2.80 | 2.80 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Al-Gharafa and Al Ahli Doha expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.34
- Attack rating (Al-Gharafa / Al Ahli Doha)
- 0.74 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Al-Gharafa / Al Ahli Doha)
- 1.13 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al-Gharafa goals. Columns: Al Ahli Doha goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Gharafa | 38% | 2.61 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.15 | |
| Al Ahli Doha | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.84 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.55 |
| No | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al-Gharafa or draw) | 62% | 1.60 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Al Ahli Doha) | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Gharafa win by 2+ | 10% | 9.59 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 13% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Al-Gharafa and Al Ahli Doha recent form
Al-Gharafa
1W 2D 3L
Al Ahli Doha
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al-Gharafa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Al Ahli Doha away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Al-Gharafa at home only, Al Ahli Doha away only.
Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Al-Gharafa 4 · draws 3 · Al Ahli Doha 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | Al-Gharafa | 1-4 | Al Ahli Doha | Stars League |
| 2025-10-25 | Al Ahli Doha | 1-3 | Al-Gharafa | Stars League |
| 2025-01-22 | Al-Gharafa | 2-0 | Al Ahli Doha | Stars League |
| 2024-08-18 | Al Ahli Doha | 1-0 | Al-Gharafa | Stars League |
| 2024-05-08 | Al-Gharafa | 4-3 | Al Ahli Doha | Emir Cup |
| 2024-02-24 | Al-Gharafa | 1-2 | Al Ahli Doha | Stars League |
| 2023-09-01 | Al Ahli Doha | 1-4 | Al-Gharafa | Stars League |
| 2023-03-03 | Al-Gharafa | 1-1 | Al Ahli Doha | Stars League |
| 2022-08-31 | Al Ahli Doha | 3-3 | Al-Gharafa | Stars League |
| 2022-01-07 | Al-Gharafa | 0-0 | Al Ahli Doha | Stars League |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Al Shahaniya vs Al Sadd 2026-10-22
- Al Shamal vs Qatar SC — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Al-Sailiya v Al-Rayyan SC — match page 2026-10-23
- Al Wakrah vs Al-Arabi SC — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Al-Duhail SC v Lusail City — match page 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Al-Gharafa, previous: Al-Gharafa – Al-Rayyan SC, 2026-10-18
- Al Ahli Doha, previous: Al Ahli Doha vs Al Wakrah prediction