Arges Pitesti vs Uta Arad preview
In the Liga I fixture between Arges Pitesti and Uta Arad, the 1X2 probabilities show Arges Pitesti at 42%, a draw at 30%, and Uta Arad at 28%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-0, with a 12% chance. Arges Pitesti has struggled recently, with a form of L-L-D-L-L-L, while Uta Arad has performed better with L-W-L-W-W-D.
The expected goals indicate a close contest, with Arges Pitesti at 0.92 and Uta Arad at 0.99. The chances for Over 2.5 goals sit at 30%, and both teams to score is at 39%. These figures suggest a low-scoring match, but any unexpected improvement in Arges Pitesti's form could change the dynamics.
Arges Pitesti vs Uta Arad: model vs market
| Source | Arges Pitesti | Draw | Uta Arad |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 35% | 36% |
| Market | 46% | 29% | 25% |
| Published | 42% | 30% | 28% |
| Edge | -17% | +6% | +11% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.07, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
Arges Pitesti vs Uta Arad odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Arges Pitesti, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-16.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arges Pitesti | 1.95 | 2.02 | +0.07 |
| Draw | 3.10 | 3.20 | +0.10 |
| Uta Arad | 3.84 | 3.68 | -0.16 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Arges Pitesti and Uta Arad expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.84
- Attack rating (Arges Pitesti / Uta Arad)
- 0.59 / 1.01
- Defence rating (Arges Pitesti / Uta Arad)
- 0.94 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Arges Pitesti vs Uta Arad score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Arges Pitesti goals. Columns: Uta Arad goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Arges Pitesti vs Uta Arad goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 37%
- No goals (0–0)
- 17%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Arges Pitesti vs Uta Arad
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arges Pitesti | 42% | 2.40 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.28 | |
| Uta Arad | 28% | 3.58 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 28% | 3.56 |
| Under 2.5 | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37% | 2.67 |
| No | 63% | 1.60 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Arges Pitesti or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Uta Arad) | 58% | 1.71 | |
| Handicap -1 | Arges Pitesti win by 2+ | 10% | 9.93 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Arges Pitesti and Uta Arad recent form
Arges Pitesti
0W 1D 5L
Uta Arad
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Arges Pitesti at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Uta Arad away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-5
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.
- 52% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Arges Pitesti at home only, Uta Arad away only.
Arges Pitesti vs Uta Arad head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Arges Pitesti 0 · draws 1 · Uta Arad 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Arges Pitesti | 0-1 | Uta Arad | Liga I |
| 2025-09-13 | Uta Arad | 3-3 | Arges Pitesti | Liga I |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- FCSB vs Rapid — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- CFR 1907 Cluj vs Dinamo Bucuresti 2026-10-24
- FC Botosani v Petrolul Ploiesti — match page 2026-10-24
- Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Universitatea Craiova — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Farul Constanta v Oţelul — match page 2026-10-24
- Csikszereda vs FC Voluntari — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Corvinul Hunedoara vs Universitatea Cluj 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Arges Pitesti, previous: Universitatea Cluj – Arges Pitesti, 2026-10-19
- Uta Arad, previous: Uta Arad vs CFR 1907 Cluj: odds and pick