Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Universitatea Craiova preview
In the Liga I fixture between Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe and Universitatea Craiova, the probabilities show a clear advantage for the visitors, with Universitatea Craiova at 54% to win compared to Sepsi's 20%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 0.62 for Sepsi and 1.34 for Craiova.
While the likelihood of Over 2.5 goals is only 31% and both teams to score sits at 35%, a low-scoring game is anticipated. Sepsi's recent form shows two wins in their last five matches, while Craiova has been more consistent with four wins in their last six. This disparity could influence the outcome, making it possible for Sepsi to perform better than expected.
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Universitatea Craiova: model vs market
| Source | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | Draw | Universitatea Craiova |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14% | 31% | 55% |
| Market | 22% | 26% | 53% |
| Published | 20% | 27% | 53% |
| Edge | -7% | +5% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.35 vs 0.55.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Universitatea Craiova below the model: +2.7 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.80, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Universitatea Craiova odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Universitatea Craiova, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 4.20 | 4.30 | +0.10 |
| Draw | 3.48 | 3.58 | +0.10 |
| Universitatea Craiova | 1.81 | 1.76 | -0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe and Universitatea Craiova expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.90
- Attack rating (Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe / Universitatea Craiova)
- 0.68 / 1.34
- Defence rating (Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe / Universitatea Craiova)
- 0.96 / 0.54
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Universitatea Craiova score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe goals. Columns: Universitatea Craiova goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Universitatea Craiova goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 32%
- No goals (0–0)
- 16%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Universitatea Craiova
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 20% | 5.08 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.70 | |
| Universitatea Craiova | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 30% | 3.38 |
| Under 2.5 | 70% | 1.42 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 32% | 3.08 |
| No | 68% | 1.48 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe or draw) | 47% | 2.14 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Universitatea Craiova) | 80% | 1.24 | |
| Handicap -1 | Universitatea Craiova win by 2+ | 28% | 3.60 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 28% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe and Universitatea Craiova recent form
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
2W 1D 3L
Universitatea Craiova
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 11 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Universitatea Craiova away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 3.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at home only, Universitatea Craiova away only.
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Before and after this match
- Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe, previous: Petrolul Ploiesti vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe prediction
- Universitatea Craiova, previous: Inter Club d'Escaldes – Universitatea Craiova, 2026-10-22
- Universitatea Craiova, next: Universitatea Craiova vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë prediction