Farul Constanta vs Oţelul preview
In the Liga I fixture, Farul Constanta has a 51% chance to win against Oţelul, who has a 23% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% probability. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 59%, indicating a potential for a high-scoring match.
Farul Constanta's expected goals stand at 1.98, while Oţelul's is significantly lower at 1.10. Recent form shows Farul Constanta with a mixed record of W-L-W-D-D-D, while Oţelul has struggled with D-L-L-L-L-D. This form could impact the match outcome, potentially leading to a different result than predicted.
Farul Constanta vs Oţelul: model vs market
| Source | Farul Constanta | Draw | Oţelul |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 26% | 23% |
| Market | 52% | 26% | 22% |
| Published | 52% | 26% | 22% |
| Edge | 0% | -1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 1.11.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.90, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Farul Constanta vs Oţelul odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Farul Constanta, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-16.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Farul Constanta | 1.93 | 1.79 | -0.14 |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.54 | +0.29 |
| Oţelul | 3.90 | 4.17 | +0.27 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Farul Constanta and Oţelul expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.89
- Attack rating (Farul Constanta / Oţelul)
- 1.04 / 0.92
- Defence rating (Farul Constanta / Oţelul)
- 1.14 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Farul Constanta vs Oţelul score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Farul Constanta goals. Columns: Oţelul goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Farul Constanta vs Oţelul goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Farul Constanta vs Oţelul
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Farul Constanta | 52% | 1.93 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.85 | |
| Oţelul | 22% | 4.48 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.76 |
| No | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Farul Constanta or draw) | 78% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Oţelul) | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Handicap -1 | Farul Constanta win by 2+ | 30% | 3.39 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Farul Constanta and Oţelul recent form
Farul Constanta
2W 2D 2L
Oţelul
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Farul Constanta at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-0
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 2.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
Oţelul away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Farul Constanta at home only, Oţelul away only.
Farul Constanta vs Oţelul head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Farul Constanta 1 · draws 1 · Oţelul 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Oţelul | 3-2 | Farul Constanta | Liga I |
| 2025-11-23 | Oţelul | 2-2 | Farul Constanta | Liga I |
| 2025-07-20 | Farul Constanta | 3-2 | Oţelul | Liga I |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- FCSB vs Rapid — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- CFR 1907 Cluj vs Dinamo Bucuresti 2026-10-24
- FC Botosani v Petrolul Ploiesti — match page 2026-10-24
- Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Universitatea Craiova — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Arges Pitesti vs Uta Arad 2026-10-24
- Csikszereda vs FC Voluntari — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Corvinul Hunedoara vs Universitatea Cluj 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Farul Constanta, previous: Universitatea Craiova vs Farul Constanta prediction
- Oţelul, previous: Oţelul vs Csikszereda: odds and pick