Cetatea Suceava vs Dumbrăviţa preview
In the Liga II fixture, Cetatea Suceava hosts Dumbrăviţa, with a 62% probability for a home win in the 1X2 market. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, occurring 13% of the time. Cetatea Suceava has a stronger expected goals figure of 2.45 compared to Dumbrăviţa's 0.71, indicating a significant attacking advantage.
However, the match could deviate from this outcome if Dumbrăviţa manages to improve their recent form, which shows four losses in their last six matches. Additionally, with a 47% chance for both teams to score, there is potential for surprises, especially if Cetatea Suceava's defense falters. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting some uncertainty in the predictions.
Cetatea Suceava vs Dumbrăviţa: model vs market
| Source | Cetatea Suceava | Draw | Dumbrăviţa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 75% | 17% | 8% |
| Market | 57% | 25% | 17% |
| Published | 62% | 23% | 15% |
| Edge | +18% | -8% | -9% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.45 vs 0.71.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Cetatea Suceava below the model: +17.7 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the 2 books we record, each at its own last update.
Cetatea Suceava vs Dumbrăviţa odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cetatea Suceava, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cetatea Suceava | 1.60 | 1.60 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.58 | 3.58 | +0.00 |
| Dumbrăviţa | 5.25 | 5.25 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cetatea Suceava and Dumbrăviţa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.16
- Attack rating (Cetatea Suceava / Dumbrăviţa)
- 1.27 / 0.60
- Defence rating (Cetatea Suceava / Dumbrăviţa)
- 0.99 / 1.22
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cetatea Suceava vs Dumbrăviţa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cetatea Suceava goals. Columns: Dumbrăviţa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cetatea Suceava vs Dumbrăviţa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cetatea Suceava vs Dumbrăviţa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cetatea Suceava | 62% | 1.62 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.28 | |
| Dumbrăviţa | 15% | 6.65 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.57 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.12 |
| No | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cetatea Suceava or draw) | 85% | 1.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Dumbrăviţa) | 38% | 2.60 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cetatea Suceava win by 2+ | 53% | 1.88 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cetatea Suceava and Dumbrăviţa recent form
Cetatea Suceava
2W 3D 1L
Dumbrăviţa
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cetatea Suceava at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Dumbrăviţa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cetatea Suceava at home only, Dumbrăviţa away only.
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