Chindia Targoviste vs Concordia preview
Chindia Targoviste hosts Concordia in Liga II with a 43% chance of winning, compared to Concordia's 31%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the high probabilities for Over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams to score at 66%. Chindia's expected goals stand at 2.10, while Concordia's is lower at 1.34.
However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. Recent form shows Chindia Targoviste winning three of their last six matches, while Concordia has also had mixed results with three wins in their last six. If Concordia can improve their scoring, it may challenge Chindia's expected dominance in this match.
Chindia Targoviste vs Concordia: model vs market
| Source | Chindia Targoviste | Draw | Concordia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| Market | 39% | 28% | 33% |
| Published | 43% | 27% | 31% |
| Edge | +15% | -5% | -10% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.10 vs 1.34.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Chindia Targoviste below the model: +14.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.42, recorded — the top price across the 4 books we record, each at its own last update.
Chindia Targoviste vs Concordia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Chindia Targoviste, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chindia Targoviste | 2.40 | 2.29 | -0.10 |
| Draw | 3.20 | 3.22 | +0.02 |
| Concordia | 2.76 | 2.72 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Chindia Targoviste and Concordia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.44
- Attack rating (Chindia Targoviste / Concordia)
- 1.30 / 1.27
- Defence rating (Chindia Targoviste / Concordia)
- 0.88 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Chindia Targoviste vs Concordia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Chindia Targoviste goals. Columns: Concordia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Chindia Targoviste vs Concordia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Chindia Targoviste vs Concordia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chindia Targoviste | 43% | 2.33 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.76 | |
| Concordia | 31% | 3.27 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.01 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.52 |
| No | 34% | 2.91 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Chindia Targoviste or draw) | 69% | 1.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Concordia) | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Handicap -1 | Chindia Targoviste win by 2+ | 33% | 3.03 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Chindia Targoviste and Concordia recent form
Chindia Targoviste
4W 0D 2L
Concordia
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Chindia Targoviste at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Concordia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Chindia Targoviste at home only, Concordia away only.
Chindia Targoviste vs Concordia head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Chindia Targoviste 1 · draws 0 · Concordia 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-05 | Concordia | 0-1 | Chindia Targoviste | Liga II |
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