CS Afumati vs Ştefăneşti: model vs market
| Source | CS Afumati | Draw | Ştefăneşti |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63% | 23% | 14% |
| Market | 57% | 25% | 18% |
| Published | 59% | 24% | 17% |
| Edge | +5% | -1% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 0.84.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices CS Afumati below the model: +5.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the 3 books we record, each at its own last update.
CS Afumati vs Ştefăneşti odds movement
Median bookmaker price on CS Afumati, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| CS Afumati | 1.63 | 1.59 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.70 | +0.10 |
| Ştefăneşti | 5.00 | 5.00 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
CS Afumati and Ştefăneşti expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.79
- Attack rating (CS Afumati / Ştefăneşti)
- 1.02 / 0.71
- Defence rating (CS Afumati / Ştefăneşti)
- 0.98 / 1.21
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
CS Afumati vs Ştefăneşti score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: CS Afumati goals. Columns: Ştefăneşti goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
CS Afumati vs Ştefăneşti goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for CS Afumati vs Ştefăneşti
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CS Afumati | 59% | 1.71 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.13 | |
| Ştefăneşti | 17% | 5.80 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.01 |
| No | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Double chance | 1X (CS Afumati or draw) | 83% | 1.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Ştefăneşti) | 41% | 2.41 | |
| Handicap -1 | CS Afumati win by 2+ | 39% | 2.58 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
CS Afumati and Ştefăneşti recent form
CS Afumati
3W 2D 1L
Ştefăneşti
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
CS Afumati at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ştefăneşti away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: CS Afumati at home only, Ştefăneşti away only.
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- CS Dinamo București vs CSM Satu Mare 2026-10-10
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