Metalul Buzău vs ASA Targu Mures preview
Metalul Buzău hosts ASA Targu Mures with a 47% chance of winning according to the model 1X2 probabilities. The expected goals suggest a strong attacking potential for Metalul Buzău at 1.86, while ASA Targu Mures has a lower expected goals figure of 1.08. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the 56% probability for Over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
However, recent form shows Metalul Buzău with mixed results, including two losses in their last five matches. ASA Targu Mures has also been inconsistent, with three wins and two draws in their last five games. This could impact the outcome, making the confidence grade a C, indicating uncertainty in the predictions.
Metalul Buzău vs ASA Targu Mures: model vs market
| Source | Metalul Buzău | Draw | ASA Targu Mures |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 25% | 21% |
| Market | 45% | 28% | 27% |
| Published | 47% | 27% | 25% |
| Edge | +10% | -3% | -6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 1.08.
- The market prices Metalul Buzău below the model: +9.7 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.03, recorded — the top price across the 4 books we record, each at its own last update.
Metalul Buzău vs ASA Targu Mures odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Metalul Buzău, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Metalul Buzău | 1.98 | 1.99 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.19 | -0.11 |
| ASA Targu Mures | 3.58 | 3.30 | -0.28 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Metalul Buzău and ASA Targu Mures expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.94
- Attack rating (Metalul Buzău / ASA Targu Mures)
- 1.03 / 1.27
- Defence rating (Metalul Buzău / ASA Targu Mures)
- 0.71 / 1.15
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Metalul Buzău vs ASA Targu Mures score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Metalul Buzău goals. Columns: ASA Targu Mures goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Metalul Buzău vs ASA Targu Mures goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Metalul Buzău vs ASA Targu Mures
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Metalul Buzău | 47% | 2.11 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.67 | |
| ASA Targu Mures | 25% | 3.92 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.76 |
| No | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Metalul Buzău or draw) | 75% | 1.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or ASA Targu Mures) | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Handicap -1 | Metalul Buzău win by 2+ | 32% | 3.13 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Metalul Buzău and ASA Targu Mures recent form
Metalul Buzău
3W 1D 2L
ASA Targu Mures
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Metalul Buzău at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
ASA Targu Mures away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Metalul Buzău at home only, ASA Targu Mures away only.
Metalul Buzău vs ASA Targu Mures head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Metalul Buzău 1 · draws 0 · ASA Targu Mures 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | ASA Targu Mures | 1-4 | Metalul Buzău | Liga II |
| 2026-02-28 | ASA Targu Mures | 1-0 | Metalul Buzău | Liga II |
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