Dundee Utd vs Aberdeen preview
Dundee Utd faces Aberdeen with a 42% chance of winning compared to Aberdeen's 30%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 11% of the time in our model. Dundee Utd's expected goals stand at 1.21, while Aberdeen's is lower at 1.04.
However, the match could see more goals, as there's a 39% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance for both teams to score. Recent form shows Dundee Utd with a mixed record of D-W-W-D-L-W, while Aberdeen has W-L-D-W-D-L. The head-to-head record is even, with both teams having 1 win each and 2 draws in their last 4 encounters.
Dundee Utd vs Aberdeen: model vs market
| Source | Dundee Utd | Draw | Aberdeen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 31% | 30% |
| Market | 43% | 27% | 30% |
| Published | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| Edge | -4% | +5% | 0% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.22, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Dundee Utd vs Aberdeen odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Dundee Utd, 18 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dundee Utd | 2.16 | 2.16 | -0.00 |
| Draw | 3.54 | 3.50 | -0.04 |
| Aberdeen | 3.10 | 3.07 | -0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Dundee Utd and Aberdeen expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.24
- Attack rating (Dundee Utd / Aberdeen)
- 0.92 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Dundee Utd / Aberdeen)
- 0.90 / 0.86
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Dundee Utd vs Aberdeen score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Dundee Utd goals. Columns: Aberdeen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Dundee Utd vs Aberdeen goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Dundee Utd vs Aberdeen
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dundee Utd | 42% | 2.38 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.61 | |
| Aberdeen | 30% | 3.31 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.57 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.15 |
| No | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Dundee Utd or draw) | 70% | 1.43 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Aberdeen) | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | Dundee Utd win by 2+ | 17% | 5.75 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Dundee Utd and Aberdeen recent form
Dundee Utd
3W 2D 1L
Aberdeen
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Dundee Utd at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
Aberdeen away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Dundee Utd at home only, Aberdeen away only.
Dundee Utd vs Aberdeen head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Dundee Utd 1 · draws 2 · Aberdeen 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Aberdeen | 2-0 | Dundee Utd | Scotland Premiership |
| 2026-02-24 | Dundee Utd | 0-0 | Aberdeen | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-12-27 | Aberdeen | 1-1 | Dundee Utd | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-09-23 | Dundee Utd | 2-0 | Aberdeen | Scotland Premiership |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- ST Mirren vs Dundee — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Rangers v ST Johnstone — match page 2026-10-24
- Falkirk vs Kilmarnock 2026-10-24
- Hibernian v Celtic — match page 2026-10-25
- Motherwell vs Heart Of Midlothian 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Dundee Utd, previous: ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd: odds and pick
- Aberdeen, previous: Aberdeen – ST Mirren, 2026-10-17