Motherwell vs Heart Of Midlothian preview
In the match between Motherwell and Heart Of Midlothian, the 1X2 probabilities show Heart Of Midlothian at 43%, while Motherwell sits at 32%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 8% chance. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Motherwell losing their last 5 matches and Heart Of Midlothian winning 2 of their last 5.
The expected goals are close, with Motherwell at 1.92 and Heart Of Midlothian at 1.95. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both predicted at 74%. However, if Motherwell can improve their form, they might challenge the expected outcome.
Motherwell vs Heart Of Midlothian: model vs market
| Source | Motherwell | Draw | Heart Of Midlothian |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 23% | 39% |
| Market | 29% | 26% | 45% |
| Published | 32% | 25% | 43% |
| Edge | +9% | -3% | -5% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.16, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Motherwell vs Heart Of Midlothian odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Heart Of Midlothian, 18 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell | 3.08 | 3.18 | +0.10 |
| Draw | 3.56 | 3.59 | +0.03 |
| Heart Of Midlothian | 2.15 | 2.09 | -0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Motherwell and Heart Of Midlothian expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.88
- Attack rating (Motherwell / Heart Of Midlothian)
- 0.93 / 1.24
- Defence rating (Motherwell / Heart Of Midlothian)
- 1.31 / 1.33
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Motherwell vs Heart Of Midlothian score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Motherwell goals. Columns: Heart Of Midlothian goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Motherwell vs Heart Of Midlothian goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 74%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Motherwell vs Heart Of Midlothian
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Motherwell | 32% | 3.17 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.98 | |
| Heart Of Midlothian | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.89 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74% | 1.35 |
| No | 26% | 3.85 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Motherwell or draw) | 57% | 1.76 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Heart Of Midlothian) | 68% | 1.46 | |
| Handicap -1 | Heart Of Midlothian win by 2+ | 22% | 4.58 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Motherwell and Heart Of Midlothian recent form
Motherwell
1W 0D 5L
Heart Of Midlothian
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Motherwell at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
Heart Of Midlothian away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 2.60
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Motherwell at home only, Heart Of Midlothian away only.
Motherwell vs Heart Of Midlothian head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Motherwell 0 · draws 3 · Heart Of Midlothian 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Motherwell | 1-1 | Heart Of Midlothian | Scotland Premiership |
| 2026-04-11 | Heart Of Midlothian | 3-1 | Motherwell | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-11-29 | Motherwell | 0-0 | Heart Of Midlothian | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-08-23 | Heart Of Midlothian | 3-3 | Motherwell | Scotland Premiership |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- ST Mirren vs Dundee — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Rangers v ST Johnstone — match page 2026-10-24
- Dundee Utd vs Aberdeen — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Falkirk vs Kilmarnock 2026-10-24
- Hibernian v Celtic — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Motherwell, previous: Kilmarnock vs Motherwell prediction
- Heart Of Midlothian, previous: Trabzonspor v Heart Of Midlothian analysis
- Heart Of Midlothian, next: FC Thun vs Heart Of Midlothian prediction