ST Mirren vs Dundee preview
In the match between ST Mirren and Dundee, the 1X2 probabilities show ST Mirren at 40% to win, while Dundee is at 34%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of ST Mirren, with a 6% chance of occurring. However, ST Mirren's recent form is concerning, with 5 losses in their last 6 matches.
Dundee comes into this match with better form, winning 3 of their last 6. The expected goals suggest ST Mirren will score 1.03, while Dundee is projected at 1.70. The model indicates a 51% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance for both teams to score. These factors could shift the outcome away from the predicted scoreline.
ST Mirren vs Dundee: model vs market
| Source | ST Mirren | Draw | Dundee |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22% | 26% | 52% |
| Market | 43% | 25% | 32% |
| Published | 38% | 25% | 37% |
| Edge | -21% | +1% | +20% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.19, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
ST Mirren vs Dundee odds movement
Median bookmaker price on ST Mirren, 18 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| ST Mirren | 2.00 | 2.16 | +0.16 |
| Draw | 3.62 | 3.68 | +0.06 |
| Dundee | 3.35 | 2.92 | -0.43 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
ST Mirren and Dundee expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.82
- Attack rating (ST Mirren / Dundee)
- 0.72 / 1.12
- Defence rating (ST Mirren / Dundee)
- 1.30 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
ST Mirren vs Dundee score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: ST Mirren goals. Columns: Dundee goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
ST Mirren vs Dundee goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for ST Mirren vs Dundee
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ST Mirren | 38% | 2.65 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.94 | |
| Dundee | 37% | 2.72 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.15 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.80 |
| No | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Double chance | 1X (ST Mirren or draw) | 63% | 1.58 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Dundee) | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Handicap -1 | ST Mirren win by 2+ | 9% | 11.49 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
ST Mirren and Dundee recent form
ST Mirren
1W 0D 5L
Dundee
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
ST Mirren at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 55% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Dundee away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: ST Mirren at home only, Dundee away only.
ST Mirren vs Dundee head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: ST Mirren 1 · draws 1 · Dundee 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Dundee | 1-0 | ST Mirren | Scotland Premiership |
| 2026-01-31 | ST Mirren | 0-0 | Dundee | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-11-29 | Dundee | 3-1 | ST Mirren | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-09-27 | ST Mirren | 1-0 | Dundee | Scotland Premiership |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Rangers v ST Johnstone — match page 2026-10-24
- Dundee Utd vs Aberdeen — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Falkirk vs Kilmarnock 2026-10-24
- Hibernian v Celtic — match page 2026-10-25
- Motherwell vs Heart Of Midlothian 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- ST Mirren, previous: Aberdeen – ST Mirren, 2026-10-17
- Dundee, previous: Dundee v Rangers analysis