Dundee Utd vs Heart Of Midlothian: model vs market
| Source | Dundee Utd | Draw | Heart Of Midlothian |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 24% | 26% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 49% | 24% | 26% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 1.32.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Dundee Utd vs Heart Of Midlothian odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Dundee Utd, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dundee Utd | 3.06 | 3.08 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.62 | +0.03 |
| Heart Of Midlothian | 2.17 | 2.19 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Dundee Utd and Heart Of Midlothian expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.20
- Attack rating (Dundee Utd / Heart Of Midlothian)
- 1.01 / 1.17
- Defence rating (Dundee Utd / Heart Of Midlothian)
- 0.94 / 1.19
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Dundee Utd vs Heart Of Midlothian score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Dundee Utd goals. Columns: Heart Of Midlothian goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Dundee Utd vs Heart Of Midlothian goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Dundee Utd vs Heart Of Midlothian
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dundee Utd | 49% | 2.03 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.09 | |
| Heart Of Midlothian | 26% | 3.80 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.67 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.57 |
| No | 36% | 2.75 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Dundee Utd or draw) | 74% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Heart Of Midlothian) | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Handicap -1 | Dundee Utd win by 2+ | 28% | 3.52 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Dundee Utd and Heart Of Midlothian recent form
Dundee Utd
3W 2D 1L
Heart Of Midlothian
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Dundee Utd at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Heart Of Midlothian away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-3
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.17
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Dundee Utd at home only, Heart Of Midlothian away only.
Dundee Utd vs Heart Of Midlothian head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Dundee Utd 0 · draws 1 · Heart Of Midlothian 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Heart Of Midlothian | 4-0 | Dundee Utd | Scotland Premiership |
| 2026-01-31 | Dundee Utd | 0-3 | Heart Of Midlothian | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-11-09 | Heart Of Midlothian | 1-1 | Dundee Utd | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-08-10 | Dundee Utd | 2-3 | Heart Of Midlothian | Scotland Premiership |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Motherwell vs ST Mirren 2026-10-31
- Rangers v Aberdeen — match page 2026-10-31
- Falkirk vs Celtic 2026-11-01
- Hibernian v Dundee — match page 2026-11-24
Before and after this match
- Dundee Utd, previous: Celtic v Dundee Utd analysis
- Heart Of Midlothian, previous: Heart Of Midlothian v Rangers analysis
- Heart Of Midlothian, next: FC Thun vs Heart Of Midlothian prediction