Celje vs Nafta preview
In the 1. SNL fixture between Celje and Nafta, the 1X2 probabilities show Nafta at 38% and Celje at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1 in favor of Nafta, which reflects their expected goals of 1.08 compared to Celje's 0.89.
While both teams to score stands at 40% and Over 2.5 goals is at 31%, these figures indicate that a low-scoring match is more probable. Celje's recent form includes two draws and three losses, while Nafta has two wins in their last three matches. This form could affect the outcome, making it possible for Celje to perform better than expected.
Celje vs Nafta: model vs market
| Source | Celje | Draw | Nafta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 34% | 38% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 28% | 34% | 38% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Celje and Nafta expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.97
- Attack rating (Celje / Nafta)
- 0.68 / 0.89
- Defence rating (Celje / Nafta)
- 0.89 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Celje vs Nafta score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Celje goals. Columns: Nafta goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Celje vs Nafta goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 40%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Celje vs Nafta
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Celje | 28% | 3.56 |
| Draw | 34% | 2.97 | |
| Nafta | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31% | 3.18 |
| Under 2.5 | 69% | 1.46 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40% | 2.49 |
| No | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Celje or draw) | 62% | 1.62 |
| 12 (either side) | 66% | 1.51 | |
| X2 (draw or Nafta) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Handicap -1 | Nafta win by 2+ | 16% | 6.25 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Celje and Nafta recent form
Celje
1W 3D 2L
Nafta
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Celje at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nafta away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Celje at home only, Nafta away only.
Celje vs Nafta head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Celje 1 · draws 0 · Nafta 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Nafta | 1-3 | Celje | 1. SNL |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Maribor v Olimpija Ljubljana — match page 2026-10-31
- Aluminij vs Radomlje 2026-10-31
- Mura vs Brinje-Grosuplje — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Celje, previous: Olimpija Ljubljana – Celje, 2026-10-28
- Celje, next: Sturm Graz vs Celje prediction
- Nafta, previous: Nafta vs Aluminij: odds and pick