Mura vs Brinje-Grosuplje preview
Mura faces Brinje-Grosuplje with a 46% chance of winning compared to 29% for Brinje-Grosuplje. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs 9% of the time in our model. Mura has struggled recently with 3 draws and 3 losses in their last 6 matches, while Brinje-Grosuplje has a mixed form with 2 wins and 4 losses.
The model suggests a high probability for Over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 64%. However, Mura's recent form could impact their ability to capitalize on these chances. If they continue to struggle, the expected goals of 1.80 for Mura and 1.42 for Brinje-Grosuplje may not translate into a high-scoring match.
Mura vs Brinje-Grosuplje: model vs market
| Source | Mura | Draw | Brinje-Grosuplje |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 25% | 29% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 46% | 25% | 29% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 1.42.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Mura and Brinje-Grosuplje expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.22
- Attack rating (Mura / Brinje-Grosuplje)
- 0.81 / 0.87
- Defence rating (Mura / Brinje-Grosuplje)
- 1.20 / 1.40
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Mura vs Brinje-Grosuplje score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Mura goals. Columns: Brinje-Grosuplje goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Mura vs Brinje-Grosuplje goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Mura vs Brinje-Grosuplje
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mura | 46% | 2.19 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.01 | |
| Brinje-Grosuplje | 29% | 3.39 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.67 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.55 |
| No | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Mura or draw) | 71% | 1.42 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Brinje-Grosuplje) | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Handicap -1 | Mura win by 2+ | 25% | 3.94 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Mura and Brinje-Grosuplje recent form
Mura
0W 4D 2L
Brinje-Grosuplje
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Mura at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-3
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
Brinje-Grosuplje away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-4
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 2.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Mura at home only, Brinje-Grosuplje away only.
Mura vs Brinje-Grosuplje head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Mura 1 · draws 0 · Brinje-Grosuplje 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Brinje-Grosuplje | 1-2 | Mura | 1. SNL |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Maribor v Olimpija Ljubljana — match page 2026-10-31
- Aluminij vs Radomlje 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Mura, previous: Radomlje vs Mura prediction
- Brinje-Grosuplje, previous: Brinje-Grosuplje – Bravo, 2026-10-29