Brinje-Grosuplje vs Aluminij preview
In the match between Brinje-Grosuplje and Aluminij, the 1X2 probabilities show Aluminij at 56%, compared to Brinje-Grosuplje's 18%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 12% chance according to our model. Aluminij's expected goals stand at 1.66, while Brinje-Grosuplje has an expected goals figure of 0.84.
However, the match could deviate from these predictions. Both teams to score has a probability of 47%, and Over 2.5 goals sits at 46%. Recent form indicates Brinje-Grosuplje has struggled with D-D-L-L-W-L, while Aluminij's recent results show W-D-L-L-D-W. This context could influence the outcome.
Brinje-Grosuplje vs Aluminij: model vs market
| Source | Brinje-Grosuplje | Draw | Aluminij |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18% | 27% | 55% |
| Market | 38% | 29% | 33% |
| Published | 33% | 28% | 39% |
| Edge | -5% | -1% | +6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 0.85.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Aluminij below our published probability: +5.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.93, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +13.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Brinje-Grosuplje vs Aluminij odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Aluminij, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brinje-Grosuplje | 2.38 | 2.36 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.15 | 3.13 | -0.02 |
| Aluminij | 2.75 | 2.73 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Brinje-Grosuplje and Aluminij expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.50
- Attack rating (Brinje-Grosuplje / Aluminij)
- 0.72 / 1.09
- Defence rating (Brinje-Grosuplje / Aluminij)
- 1.14 / 0.74
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Brinje-Grosuplje vs Aluminij score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Brinje-Grosuplje goals. Columns: Aluminij goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Brinje-Grosuplje vs Aluminij goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Brinje-Grosuplje vs Aluminij
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brinje-Grosuplje | 33% | 3.02 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.54 | |
| Aluminij | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.19 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.11 |
| No | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Brinje-Grosuplje or draw) | 61% | 1.63 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Aluminij) | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Handicap -1 | Aluminij win by 2+ | 31% | 3.22 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Brinje-Grosuplje and Aluminij recent form
Brinje-Grosuplje
1W 2D 3L
Aluminij
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Brinje-Grosuplje at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-3
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 1.29
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
Aluminij away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 13 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Brinje-Grosuplje at home only, Aluminij away only.
Brinje-Grosuplje vs Aluminij head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Brinje-Grosuplje 0 · draws 0 · Aluminij 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Aluminij | 4-2 | Brinje-Grosuplje | 1. SNL |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
- Nafta vs Olimpija Ljubljana — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Koper v Mura — match page 2026-11-07
- Bravo vs Maribor 2026-11-07
- Radomlje vs Celje 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Brinje-Grosuplje, previous: Mura vs Brinje-Grosuplje: odds and pick
- Aluminij, previous: Aluminij vs Radomlje prediction