Radomlje vs Celje preview
In the upcoming match between Radomlje and Celje, the 1X2 probabilities show Celje at 60% to win, compared to Radomlje's 18%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with Celje's expected goals of 1.73 against Radomlje's 1.14.
However, Radomlje's recent form includes 4 matches without a win, while Celje has won 2 of their last 6. This could affect the outcome, as both teams to score stands at 57% and Over 2.5 goals is at 55%. With Radomlje struggling, the match could be closer than expected if they manage to improve their performance.
Radomlje vs Celje: model vs market
| Source | Radomlje | Draw | Celje |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23% | 24% | 52% |
| Market | 18% | 21% | 60% |
| Published | 20% | 22% | 58% |
| Edge | +1% | +1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 1.22.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.55, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Radomlje vs Celje odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Celje, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Radomlje | 5.75 | 4.92 | -0.83 |
| Draw | 4.35 | 4.20 | -0.15 |
| Celje | 1.45 | 1.50 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Radomlje and Celje expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.13
- Attack rating (Radomlje / Celje)
- 0.86 / 0.98
- Defence rating (Radomlje / Celje)
- 1.48 / 0.89
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Radomlje vs Celje score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Radomlje goals. Columns: Celje goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Radomlje vs Celje goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Radomlje vs Celje
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Radomlje | 20% | 5.11 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.50 | |
| Celje | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.54 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.64 |
| No | 39% | 2.57 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Radomlje or draw) | 42% | 2.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Celje) | 80% | 1.24 | |
| Handicap -1 | Celje win by 2+ | 31% | 3.25 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Radomlje and Celje recent form
Radomlje
0W 3D 3L
Celje
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Radomlje at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.86
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 1 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.9 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Celje away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-2
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.14
- Goals against / match
- 1.14
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 7
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Radomlje at home only, Celje away only.
Radomlje vs Celje head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Radomlje 0 · draws 0 · Celje 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Radomlje | 1-3 | Celje | 1. SNL |
| 2026-02-04 | Celje | 3-1 | Radomlje | 1. SNL |
| 2025-10-05 | Radomlje | 0-3 | Celje | 1. SNL |
| 2025-07-27 | Celje | 2-0 | Radomlje | 1. SNL |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
- Nafta vs Olimpija Ljubljana — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Koper v Mura — match page 2026-11-07
- Bravo vs Maribor 2026-11-07
- Brinje-Grosuplje v Aluminij — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Radomlje, previous: Aluminij vs Radomlje prediction
- Celje, previous: Sturm Graz vs Celje prediction
- Celje, next: Ferencvarosi TC vs Celje: odds and pick