Bravo vs Maribor preview
In the match between Bravo and Maribor, the probabilities show Maribor at 46% to win compared to Bravo's 27%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, which occurs 11% of the time in our model. Bravo's recent form includes 2 wins and 3 losses, while Maribor has 2 wins and 1 loss in their last 5 matches.
The expected goals are closely matched, with Bravo at 1.06 and Maribor at 1.08. There is a 36% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance for both teams to score. These factors suggest a competitive match, but the outcome could change if Bravo improves their form or if Maribor's defense falters.
Bravo vs Maribor: model vs market
| Source | Bravo | Draw | Maribor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 32% | 34% |
| Market | 24% | 25% | 51% |
| Published | 26% | 27% | 47% |
| Edge | +2% | +2% | -4% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.87, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Bravo vs Maribor odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Maribor, 8 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bravo | 3.70 | 3.80 | +0.10 |
| Draw | 3.54 | 3.68 | +0.14 |
| Maribor | 1.85 | 1.77 | -0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Bravo and Maribor expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.13
- Attack rating (Bravo / Maribor)
- 0.78 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Bravo / Maribor)
- 0.86 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bravo vs Maribor score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bravo goals. Columns: Maribor goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bravo vs Maribor goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bravo vs Maribor
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bravo | 26% | 3.81 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.76 | |
| Maribor | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36% | 2.78 |
| Under 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.25 |
| No | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bravo or draw) | 53% | 1.89 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Maribor) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| Handicap -1 | Maribor win by 2+ | 14% | 7.07 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Bravo and Maribor recent form
Bravo
2W 2D 2L
Maribor
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bravo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-2
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 1.43
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 14 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Maribor away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-1
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 1.29
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 6 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Bravo at home only, Maribor away only.
Bravo vs Maribor head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Bravo 2 · draws 4 · Maribor 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Maribor | 3-1 | Bravo | 1. SNL |
| 2026-04-26 | Bravo | 3-0 | Maribor | 1. SNL |
| 2026-02-22 | Maribor | 2-0 | Bravo | 1. SNL |
| 2025-11-01 | Bravo | 2-3 | Maribor | 1. SNL |
| 2025-08-16 | Maribor | 3-3 | Bravo | 1. SNL |
| 2025-04-13 | Bravo | 1-1 | Maribor | 1. SNL |
| 2025-02-15 | Maribor | 2-3 | Bravo | 1. SNL |
| 2024-10-20 | Bravo | 0-1 | Maribor | 1. SNL |
| 2024-08-04 | Maribor | 1-1 | Bravo | 1. SNL |
| 2024-04-14 | Bravo | 1-1 | Maribor | 1. SNL |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
- Nafta vs Olimpija Ljubljana — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Koper v Mura — match page 2026-11-07
- Brinje-Grosuplje v Aluminij — match page 2026-11-08
- Radomlje vs Celje 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Bravo, previous: Bravo – Koper, 2026-11-02
- Maribor, previous: Maribor v Olimpija Ljubljana analysis