Nafta vs Olimpija Ljubljana preview
In the match between Nafta and Olimpija Ljubljana, the 1X2 probabilities show Olimpija Ljubljana at 48%, compared to Nafta's 24%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 0-1, with a 14% chance. Nafta's expected goals stand at 0.85, while Olimpija Ljubljana's is 1.17, indicating a stronger attacking potential for the visitors.
However, Nafta's recent form includes 2 wins in their last 5 matches, which could influence the outcome. Additionally, both teams to score has a probability of 41%, suggesting that Nafta might find the net despite their lower expected goals. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Nafta vs Olimpija Ljubljana: model vs market
| Source | Nafta | Draw | Olimpija Ljubljana |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25% | 33% | 42% |
| Market | 23% | 26% | 51% |
| Published | 24% | 28% | 49% |
| Edge | +1% | +2% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.17 vs 0.85.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.88, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Nafta vs Olimpija Ljubljana odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Olimpija Ljubljana, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nafta | 4.00 | 3.95 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.52 | +0.02 |
| Olimpija Ljubljana | 1.79 | 1.79 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Nafta and Olimpija Ljubljana expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.01
- Attack rating (Nafta / Olimpija Ljubljana)
- 0.76 / 0.92
- Defence rating (Nafta / Olimpija Ljubljana)
- 0.96 / 0.70
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nafta vs Olimpija Ljubljana score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nafta goals. Columns: Olimpija Ljubljana goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nafta vs Olimpija Ljubljana goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nafta vs Olimpija Ljubljana
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nafta | 24% | 4.22 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.61 | |
| Olimpija Ljubljana | 49% | 2.06 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33% | 3.06 |
| Under 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.46 |
| No | 59% | 1.68 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nafta or draw) | 51% | 1.95 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Olimpija Ljubljana) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| Handicap -1 | Olimpija Ljubljana win by 2+ | 19% | 5.39 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Nafta and Olimpija Ljubljana recent form
Nafta
2W 2D 2L
Olimpija Ljubljana
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Nafta at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-3
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.71
- Goals against / match
- 1.57
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 14 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Olimpija Ljubljana away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-3
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 0.86
- Goals against / match
- 0.71
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 7
- They have won 6 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Nafta at home only, Olimpija Ljubljana away only.
Nafta vs Olimpija Ljubljana head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Nafta 0 · draws 1 · Olimpija Ljubljana 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 1-0 | Nafta | 1. SNL |
| 2025-04-12 | Nafta | 1-1 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 1. SNL |
| 2025-02-16 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 3-0 | Nafta | 1. SNL |
| 2024-10-19 | Nafta | 0-1 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 1. SNL |
| 2024-08-05 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 2-0 | Nafta | 1. SNL |
| 2023-03-08 | Nafta | 1-3 | Olimpija Ljubljana | Cup |
| 2021-04-28 | Nafta | 0-1 | Olimpija Ljubljana | Cup |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
- Koper v Mura — match page 2026-11-07
- Bravo vs Maribor 2026-11-07
- Brinje-Grosuplje v Aluminij — match page 2026-11-08
- Radomlje vs Celje 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Nafta, previous: Celje v Nafta analysis
- Olimpija Ljubljana, previous: Maribor v Olimpija Ljubljana analysis