Maribor vs Olimpija Ljubljana preview
Maribor faces Olimpija Ljubljana with a 45% chance of winning compared to Olimpija's 24%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 13% probability. Maribor's expected goals are 1.34, while Olimpija Ljubljana's are lower at 0.92.
However, both teams to score stands at 46%, indicating a possibility that Olimpija could find the net. Maribor's recent form shows 3 draws and 2 wins, while Olimpija has 4 wins in their last 6 matches. The head-to-head record favors Olimpija, who has 1 win and 3 draws in the last 4 encounters. With a confidence grade of C, the outcome remains uncertain.
Maribor vs Olimpija Ljubljana: model vs market
| Source | Maribor | Draw | Olimpija Ljubljana |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 30% | 24% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 45% | 30% | 24% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.34 vs 0.92.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Maribor and Olimpija Ljubljana expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.26
- Attack rating (Maribor / Olimpija Ljubljana)
- 1.13 / 0.99
- Defence rating (Maribor / Olimpija Ljubljana)
- 0.68 / 0.75
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Maribor vs Olimpija Ljubljana score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Maribor goals. Columns: Olimpija Ljubljana goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Maribor vs Olimpija Ljubljana goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Maribor vs Olimpija Ljubljana
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Maribor | 45% | 2.21 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.28 | |
| Olimpija Ljubljana | 24% | 4.11 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.55 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.19 |
| No | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Maribor or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Olimpija Ljubljana) | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Handicap -1 | Maribor win by 2+ | 22% | 4.57 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Maribor and Olimpija Ljubljana recent form
Maribor
3W 3D 0L
Olimpija Ljubljana
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Maribor at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- 56% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Olimpija Ljubljana away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-3
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Maribor at home only, Olimpija Ljubljana away only.
Maribor vs Olimpija Ljubljana head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Maribor 0 · draws 3 · Olimpija Ljubljana 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 1-1 | Maribor | 1. SNL |
| 2026-03-08 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 0-0 | Maribor | 1. SNL |
| 2025-11-23 | Maribor | 1-1 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 1. SNL |
| 2025-08-31 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 1-0 | Maribor | 1. SNL |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Aluminij vs Radomlje 2026-10-31
- Mura vs Brinje-Grosuplje — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Celje vs Nafta — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Maribor, previous: Koper v Maribor analysis
- Olimpija Ljubljana, previous: Olimpija Ljubljana – Celje, 2026-10-28