Aluminij vs Radomlje preview
In the 1. SNL fixture between Aluminij and Radomlje, the 1X2 probabilities show Aluminij at 53% and Radomlje at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with Aluminij's expected goals of 1.86 compared to Radomlje's 1.14.
Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 58%. However, Aluminij's recent form of L-L-D-W-D-L could impact their performance, while Radomlje's D-D-L-L-L-D suggests they are struggling. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the outcome.
Aluminij vs Radomlje: model vs market
| Source | Aluminij | Draw | Radomlje |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 25% | 22% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 53% | 25% | 22% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 1.14.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Aluminij and Radomlje expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.00
- Attack rating (Aluminij / Radomlje)
- 0.88 / 0.97
- Defence rating (Aluminij / Radomlje)
- 0.86 / 1.33
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Aluminij vs Radomlje score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Aluminij goals. Columns: Radomlje goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Aluminij vs Radomlje goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Aluminij vs Radomlje
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aluminij | 53% | 1.88 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.04 | |
| Radomlje | 22% | 4.52 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.71 |
| No | 42% | 2.41 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Aluminij or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Radomlje) | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Handicap -1 | Aluminij win by 2+ | 31% | 3.23 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Aluminij and Radomlje recent form
Aluminij
1W 2D 3L
Radomlje
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Aluminij at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-3
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 0.71
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 12 matches.
Radomlje away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Aluminij at home only, Radomlje away only.
Aluminij vs Radomlje head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Aluminij 3 · draws 0 · Radomlje 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Radomlje | 1-3 | Aluminij | 1. SNL |
| 2026-04-03 | Aluminij | 1-2 | Radomlje | 1. SNL |
| 2026-01-30 | Radomlje | 2-1 | Aluminij | 1. SNL |
| 2025-09-26 | Aluminij | 2-1 | Radomlje | 1. SNL |
| 2025-07-18 | Radomlje | 1-2 | Aluminij | 1. SNL |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Maribor v Olimpija Ljubljana — match page 2026-10-31
- Mura vs Brinje-Grosuplje — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Aluminij, previous: Nafta vs Aluminij: odds and pick
- Radomlje, previous: Radomlje vs Mura prediction