IFK Varnamo vs Sandviken preview
In the Superettan fixture between IFK Varnamo and Sandviken, the 1X2 probabilities show IFK Varnamo at 40%, Sandviken at 34%, and a draw at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. The model predicts Over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 61%.
IFK Varnamo's expected goals stand at 1.56, while Sandviken's are at 1.43. Recent form indicates IFK Varnamo has won 3 of their last 5 matches, while Sandviken has also won 3 but with more draws. A potential factor that could affect this outcome is the confidence grade of C, suggesting uncertainty in the prediction.
IFK Varnamo vs Sandviken: model vs market
| Source | IFK Varnamo | Draw | Sandviken |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 27% | 34% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 40% | 27% | 34% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
IFK Varnamo and Sandviken expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.98
- Attack rating (IFK Varnamo / Sandviken)
- 1.09 / 1.06
- Defence rating (IFK Varnamo / Sandviken)
- 1.03 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
IFK Varnamo vs Sandviken score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: IFK Varnamo goals. Columns: Sandviken goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
IFK Varnamo vs Sandviken goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for IFK Varnamo vs Sandviken
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | IFK Varnamo | 40% | 2.52 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.76 | |
| Sandviken | 34% | 2.96 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.64 |
| No | 39% | 2.57 | |
| Double chance | 1X (IFK Varnamo or draw) | 66% | 1.51 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Sandviken) | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Handicap -1 | IFK Varnamo win by 2+ | 20% | 4.95 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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IFK Varnamo and Sandviken recent form
IFK Varnamo
3W 1D 2L
Sandviken
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
IFK Varnamo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-5-6
- Win rate
- 15%
- Goals for / match
- 1.15
- Goals against / match
- 1.38
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 13
- They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sandviken away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-4-6
- Win rate
- 23%
- Goals for / match
- 1.23
- Goals against / match
- 1.38
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 13
- They have won 9 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: IFK Varnamo at home only, Sandviken away only.
IFK Varnamo vs Sandviken head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: IFK Varnamo 1 · draws 0 · Sandviken 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Sandviken | 0-1 | IFK Varnamo | Superettan |
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
- Oddevold v GIF Sundsvall — match page 2026-10-23
- Ostersunds FK v United Nordic — match page 2026-10-24
- IK brage vs Osters IF — team news & stats 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- IFK Varnamo, previous: GIF Sundsvall v IFK Varnamo analysis
- Sandviken, previous: Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK prediction