Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK: model vs market
| Source | Sandviken | Draw | Ostersunds FK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 34% | 33% |
| Market | 30% | 28% | 42% |
| Published | 31% | 29% | 40% |
| Edge | +3% | +6% | -9% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Ostersunds FK, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sandviken | 2.99 | 3.11 | +0.12 |
| Draw | 3.26 | 3.31 | +0.05 |
| Ostersunds FK | 2.28 | 2.19 | -0.09 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sandviken and Ostersunds FK expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.95
- Attack rating (Sandviken / Ostersunds FK)
- 1.17 / 0.75
- Defence rating (Sandviken / Ostersunds FK)
- 1.00 / 0.53
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sandviken goals. Columns: Ostersunds FK goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 40%
- No goals (0–0)
- 16%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sandviken | 31% | 3.28 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.40 | |
| Ostersunds FK | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31% | 3.22 |
| Under 2.5 | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40% | 2.48 |
| No | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sandviken or draw) | 60% | 1.67 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Ostersunds FK) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ostersunds FK win by 2+ | 13% | 7.80 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Sandviken and Ostersunds FK recent form
Sandviken
2W 2D 2L
Ostersunds FK
2W 4D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sandviken at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-3-4
- Win rate
- 46%
- Goals for / match
- 2.08
- Goals against / match
- 1.54
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 13
- They have won 9 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ostersunds FK away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-6-3
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.23
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 13
- They have won 11 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sandviken at home only, Ostersunds FK away only.
Expected lineups
Sandviken lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 H. Sveijer
- 18 C. Rogers
- 17 W. Nilsson
- 23 K. Harletun
- 26 L. Tagesson
- 16 M. Abubakari
- 22 D. Bergman
- 12 A. Carleton
- 7 J. Arvidsson
- 11 V. Backman
- 8 K. Bohm
Bench: N. Geiger, L. Vabö, Christian Wagner, I. Lindholm, Y. Yaya, A. Lund, O. Lindell
Ostersunds FK lineup · 3-4-3
- 12 R. Forsell
- 3 H. Azzi
- 14 S. Anyanwu
- 19 D. Widgren
- 28 Y. Adjoumani
- 16 A. Begić
- 17 C. Edwards
- 27 D. Miljanovic
- 8 E. Özkan
- 9 A. Stensrud
- 10 S. Marklund
Bench: M. Uppenberg, E. Caarls, J. Westerberg, A. Qasem, Masllorens, D. Molls, M. Palomino, L. Bozickovic, E. Y. Worke
Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Sandviken 3 · draws 1 · Ostersunds FK 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Ostersunds FK | 2-1 | Sandviken | Superettan |
| 2025-11-08 | Sandviken | 5-0 | Ostersunds FK | Superettan |
| 2025-05-17 | Ostersunds FK | 2-2 | Sandviken | Superettan |
| 2024-10-05 | Sandviken | 3-1 | Ostersunds FK | Superettan |
| 2024-06-01 | Ostersunds FK | 0-2 | Sandviken | Superettan |
Other Matchday 27 fixtures
- Ljungskile SK v IK brage — match page 2026-10-17
- Falkenbergs FF vs Landskrona BoIS 2026-10-17
- Osters IF vs Oddevold 2026-10-17
- United Nordic vs Norrby IF — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- GIF Sundsvall v IFK Varnamo — match page 2026-10-18
- Varbergs BoIS FC vs Helsingborg — team news & stats 2026-10-19
- IFK Norrkoping vs Orebro SK — team news & stats 2026-10-20
Before and after this match
- Sandviken, previous: Landskrona BoIS v Sandviken analysis
- Sandviken, next: IFK Varnamo – Sandviken, 2026-10-24
- Ostersunds FK, previous: Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC: odds and pick
- Ostersunds FK, next: Ostersunds FK vs United Nordic: odds and pick