Ostersunds FK vs United Nordic preview
Ostersunds FK faces United Nordic with a 54% probability of winning according to our model. The expected goals for Ostersunds FK stand at 1.31, while United Nordic has just 0.56. This suggests a likely tight match, with the most probable scoreline being 1-0, which accounts for 19% of outcomes.
However, there are factors that could change this prediction. Both teams to score is only at 32%, indicating that goals may be limited. Additionally, Ostersunds FK's recent form shows they have drawn three of their last five matches, which could lead to a less decisive result than anticipated.
Ostersunds FK vs United Nordic: model vs market
| Source | Ostersunds FK | Draw | United Nordic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 31% | 15% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 54% | 31% | 15% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.31 vs 0.56.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Ostersunds FK and United Nordic expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.87
- Attack rating (Ostersunds FK / United Nordic)
- 0.70 / 0.90
- Defence rating (Ostersunds FK / United Nordic)
- 0.48 / 1.20
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ostersunds FK vs United Nordic score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ostersunds FK goals. Columns: United Nordic goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ostersunds FK vs United Nordic goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 32%
- No goals (0–0)
- 16%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ostersunds FK vs United Nordic
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ostersunds FK | 54% | 1.85 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.21 | |
| United Nordic | 15% | 6.82 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 29% | 3.46 |
| Under 2.5 | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 32% | 3.08 |
| No | 68% | 1.48 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ostersunds FK or draw) | 85% | 1.17 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| X2 (draw or United Nordic) | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ostersunds FK win by 2+ | 27% | 3.74 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Ostersunds FK and United Nordic recent form
Ostersunds FK
2W 4D 0L
United Nordic
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ostersunds FK at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-5-1
- Win rate
- 54%
- Goals for / match
- 1.38
- Goals against / match
- 0.92
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 13
- They have won 11 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
United Nordic away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-4
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.15
- Goals against / match
- 1.31
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 13
- They have won 9 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ostersunds FK at home only, United Nordic away only.
Ostersunds FK vs United Nordic head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Ostersunds FK 0 · draws 1 · United Nordic 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | United Nordic | 1-1 | Ostersunds FK | Superettan |
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
- Oddevold v GIF Sundsvall — match page 2026-10-23
- IFK Varnamo vs Sandviken 2026-10-24
- IK brage vs Osters IF — team news & stats 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Ostersunds FK, previous: Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK prediction
- United Nordic, previous: United Nordic – Norrby IF, 2026-10-18