Varbergs BoIS FC vs Helsingborg preview
In the Superettan fixture between Varbergs BoIS FC and Helsingborg, the 1X2 probabilities show Varbergs BoIS FC at 53%, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 (10%). Varbergs BoIS FC has a strong recent form of D-W-W-L-D-W, while Helsingborg has struggled with L-D-L-W-L-D.
The expected goals indicate Varbergs BoIS FC at 1.93 and Helsingborg at 1.07. There is a 58% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance for both teams to score. However, if Helsingborg improves their form, they could challenge Varbergs BoIS FC's dominance, which has seen them win all three of their last head-to-head matches.
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Helsingborg: model vs market
| Source | Varbergs BoIS FC | Draw | Helsingborg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| Market | 51% | 25% | 24% |
| Published | 53% | 25% | 23% |
| Edge | +5% | -1% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 1.07.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Varbergs BoIS FC below the model: +5.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.90, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Helsingborg odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Varbergs BoIS FC, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Varbergs BoIS FC | 1.81 | 1.81 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.68 | 3.68 | +0.00 |
| Helsingborg | 3.96 | 3.90 | -0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Varbergs BoIS FC and Helsingborg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.00
- Attack rating (Varbergs BoIS FC / Helsingborg)
- 1.14 / 0.87
- Defence rating (Varbergs BoIS FC / Helsingborg)
- 0.94 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Helsingborg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Varbergs BoIS FC goals. Columns: Helsingborg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Helsingborg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Helsingborg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Varbergs BoIS FC | 53% | 1.90 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.03 | |
| Helsingborg | 23% | 4.42 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.75 |
| No | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Varbergs BoIS FC or draw) | 77% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Helsingborg) | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Handicap -1 | Varbergs BoIS FC win by 2+ | 34% | 2.94 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Varbergs BoIS FC and Helsingborg recent form
Varbergs BoIS FC
3W 2D 1L
Helsingborg
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Varbergs BoIS FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-1-4
- Win rate
- 62%
- Goals for / match
- 1.77
- Goals against / match
- 1.23
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 13
- They have won 13 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
Helsingborg away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-7
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.31
- Goals against / match
- 2.08
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 13
- They have won 8 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 25 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Varbergs BoIS FC at home only, Helsingborg away only.
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Helsingborg head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Varbergs BoIS FC 3 · draws 0 · Helsingborg 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | Helsingborg | 1-3 | Varbergs BoIS FC | Superettan |
| 2025-07-28 | Helsingborg | 1-2 | Varbergs BoIS FC | Superettan |
| 2025-05-03 | Varbergs BoIS FC | 1-0 | Helsingborg | Superettan |
Other Matchday 27 fixtures
- Ljungskile SK v IK brage — match page 2026-10-17
- Falkenbergs FF vs Landskrona BoIS 2026-10-17
- Sandviken v Ostersunds FK — match page 2026-10-17
- Osters IF vs Oddevold 2026-10-17
- United Nordic vs Norrby IF — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- GIF Sundsvall v IFK Varnamo — match page 2026-10-18
- IFK Norrkoping vs Orebro SK — team news & stats 2026-10-20
Before and after this match
- Varbergs BoIS FC, previous: Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC: odds and pick
- Helsingborg, previous: IK brage vs Helsingborg prediction