IK brage vs Helsingborg: model vs market
| Source | IK brage | Draw | Helsingborg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 26% | 41% |
| Market | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| Published | 40% | 26% | 34% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +2% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
IK brage vs Helsingborg odds movement
Median bookmaker price on IK brage, 15 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| IK brage | 2.31 | 2.20 | -0.11 |
| Draw | 3.54 | 3.54 | -0.00 |
| Helsingborg | 2.65 | 2.87 | +0.22 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
IK brage and Helsingborg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.13
- Attack rating (IK brage / Helsingborg)
- 0.91 / 0.95
- Defence rating (IK brage / Helsingborg)
- 1.33 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
IK brage vs Helsingborg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: IK brage goals. Columns: Helsingborg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
IK brage vs Helsingborg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for IK brage vs Helsingborg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | IK brage | 40% | 2.52 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.85 | |
| Helsingborg | 34% | 2.91 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.53 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.58 |
| No | 37% | 2.73 | |
| Double chance | 1X (IK brage or draw) | 66% | 1.52 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Helsingborg) | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Handicap -1 | IK brage win by 2+ | 16% | 6.25 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
IK brage and Helsingborg recent form
IK brage
0W 2D 4L
Helsingborg
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
IK brage at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-5-5
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.92
- Goals against / match
- 2.08
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 12
- They have won 5 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 25 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Helsingborg away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-6
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.42
- Goals against / match
- 2.08
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 12
- They have won 8 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 25 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: IK brage at home only, Helsingborg away only.
Expected lineups
IK brage lineup · 4-4-2
- 1 V. Frodig
- 16 Y. Rafael
- 22 T. Stagaard
- 2 A. Zetterström
- 21 N. Östberg
- 8 A. Sporrong
- 7 J. Stensson
- 6 Lasse Madsen
- 11 A. Lundin
- 9 F. Trpcevski
- 19 M. Sise
Bench: L. Konjuhi, G. Berggren, A. Mortensen, P. Jonsson, V. Ozor Okeke, A. Hellblom, G. Granström, J. Guadagno
Helsingborg lineup · 3-5-2
- 30 E. Rådahl
- 42 L. Hyppanen
- 3 J. Voelkerling Persson
- 4 M. Gudmann
- 5 S. Bengtsson
- 21 Julian Larsson
- 26 L. Sadiku
- 14 L. Kjellnäs
- 31 E. Lindell
- 10 M. Svensson
- 11 A. Akimey
Bench: J. Brattberg, O. Addo, L. Persson, L. Hedenberg, T. Rupil, D. Amadou, C. Biten
IK brage vs Helsingborg head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: IK brage 2 · draws 2 · Helsingborg 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Helsingborg | 2-0 | IK brage | Superettan |
| 2025-10-25 | IK brage | 3-2 | Helsingborg | Superettan |
| 2025-05-13 | Helsingborg | 1-0 | IK brage | Superettan |
| 2024-08-27 | IK brage | 0-3 | Helsingborg | Superettan |
| 2024-04-09 | Helsingborg | 1-1 | IK brage | Superettan |
| 2023-11-04 | Helsingborg | 2-0 | IK brage | Superettan |
| 2023-04-22 | IK brage | 1-0 | Helsingborg | Superettan |
| 2021-10-31 | Helsingborg | 3-0 | IK brage | Superettan |
| 2021-05-09 | IK brage | 0-0 | Helsingborg | Superettan |
| 2018-09-19 | Helsingborg | 4-1 | IK brage | Superettan |
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Before and after this match
- IK brage, next: Ljungskile SK – IK brage, 2026-10-17
- Helsingborg, next: Varbergs BoIS FC v Helsingborg analysis