Updated

Superettan · Matchday 26

IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF

· Finnvedsvallen, Venamu· Referee Sars Joakim

Full time1 – 2

Alin prediction was IFK Varnamo to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
IFK VarnamoDrawFalkenbergs FF

IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceIFK VarnamoDrawFalkenbergs FF
Model35%27%38%
Market40%26%34%
Published39%27%35%
Edge-1%0%+1%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF odds movement

Median bookmaker price on IFK Varnamo, 15 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 2.34Now 2.30 -0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
IFK Varnamo2.342.30-0.04
Draw3.423.48+0.06
Falkenbergs FF2.732.75+0.02

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

IFK Varnamo and Falkenbergs FF expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.43IFK Varnamo
1.48Falkenbergs FF
Total expected goals
2.91
Attack rating (IFK Varnamo / Falkenbergs FF)
1.11 / 1.15
Defence rating (IFK Varnamo / Falkenbergs FF)
0.99 / 0.82

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.6% 6.9% 6.0% 3.0% 1.5% 1 6.6% 12.7% 8.6% 4.2% 2.2% 2 5.5% 8.2% 6.1% 3.0% 1.6% 3 2.6% 3.9% 2.9% 1.4% 0.7% 4+ 1.3% 1.9% 1.4% 0.7% 0.4%

Rows: IFK Varnamo goals. Columns: Falkenbergs FF goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 56%
Over 3.5 33%
Both teams to score
60%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2IFK Varnamo39%2.58
Draw27%3.76
Falkenbergs FF35%2.89
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556%1.80
Under 2.544%2.26
Both teams to scoreYes60%1.67
No40%2.50
Double chance1X (IFK Varnamo or draw)65%1.53
12 (either side)73%1.36
X2 (draw or Falkenbergs FF)61%1.63
Handicap -1IFK Varnamo win by 2+17%5.91
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

IFK Varnamo and Falkenbergs FF recent form

IFK Varnamo 3W 2D 1L
Falkenbergs FF 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

IFK Varnamo at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-5-5
Win rate
17%
Goals for / match
1.17
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
2 of 12
  • They have won 8 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 25 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 25 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Falkenbergs FF away

Record (W-D-L)
6-2-4
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.17
Goals against / match
1.67
Clean sheets
1 of 12
  • They have won 13 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 25 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: IFK Varnamo at home only, Falkenbergs FF away only.

Expected lineups

IFK Varnamo lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 H. Keto
  2. 3 A. Björnström
  3. 16 Z. Råvik
  4. 2 J. Rapp
  5. 18 A. Motaraghebjafarpour
  6. 11 A. Ljungberg
  7. 26 C. Johansson
  8. 10 V. Claesson
  9. 8 H. Andersson Mella
  10. 14 M. Antonsson
  11. 9 K. Meriluoto

Bench: S. Ohlsson, S. Jansson, S. Thern, L. Róbertsson, M. Kamara, L. Selin

Falkenbergs FF lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 A. Andersson
  2. 12 A. Rupia-Ellis
  3. 23 A. Salo
  4. 17 A. Miftari
  5. 6 L. Borgström
  6. 10 E. Mohammad
  7. 28 M. Nilsson
  8. 30 G. Aguda
  9. 19 O. Lindberg
  10. 11 H. Källström
  11. 9 Albin Andersson

Bench: T. Stålheden, N. Hansson, N. Bertilsson, W. Videhult, Lassina Sangare, L. Beqiri, Gazton Alexandersson, H. Komano, G. Lillienberg

IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: IFK Varnamo 3 · draws 1 · Falkenbergs FF 5.

IFK VarnamoDrawsFalkenbergs FF
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-23Falkenbergs FF3-1IFK VarnamoSuperettan
2025-03-08IFK Varnamo1-0Falkenbergs FFFriendlies Clubs
2021-10-25IFK Varnamo3-2Falkenbergs FFSuperettan
2021-07-10IFK Varnamo0-1Falkenbergs FFFriendlies Clubs
2021-05-01Falkenbergs FF0-3IFK VarnamoSuperettan
2018-10-28Falkenbergs FF3-0IFK VarnamoSuperettan
2018-05-29IFK Varnamo1-4Falkenbergs FFSuperettan
2017-08-09Falkenbergs FF2-0IFK VarnamoSuperettan
2017-06-17IFK Varnamo1-1Falkenbergs FFSuperettan

Other Matchday 26 fixtures

Before and after this match