IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF: model vs market
| Source | IFK Varnamo | Draw | Falkenbergs FF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 27% | 38% |
| Market | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Published | 39% | 27% | 35% |
| Edge | -5% | 0% | +5% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF odds movement
Median bookmaker price on IFK Varnamo, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| IFK Varnamo | 2.34 | 2.31 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 3.42 | 3.42 | +0.00 |
| Falkenbergs FF | 2.73 | 2.75 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
IFK Varnamo and Falkenbergs FF expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.91
- Attack rating (IFK Varnamo / Falkenbergs FF)
- 1.11 / 1.15
- Defence rating (IFK Varnamo / Falkenbergs FF)
- 0.99 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: IFK Varnamo goals. Columns: Falkenbergs FF goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | IFK Varnamo | 39% | 2.59 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.72 | |
| Falkenbergs FF | 35% | 2.90 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.67 |
| No | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Double chance | 1X (IFK Varnamo or draw) | 65% | 1.53 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Falkenbergs FF) | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Handicap -1 | IFK Varnamo win by 2+ | 17% | 5.95 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
IFK Varnamo and Falkenbergs FF recent form
IFK Varnamo
3W 2D 1L
Falkenbergs FF
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
IFK Varnamo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-5-5
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 12
- They have won 7 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Falkenbergs FF away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-2-4
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 12
- They have won 13 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: IFK Varnamo at home only, Falkenbergs FF away only.
IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: IFK Varnamo 0 · draws 0 · Falkenbergs FF 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Falkenbergs FF | 3-1 | IFK Varnamo | Superettan |
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