Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC preview
Ostersunds FK hosts Varbergs BoIS FC with a 44% probability of winning according to the model. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 16% of the time. Ostersunds FK has shown consistent form with four draws and two wins in their last six matches, while Varbergs BoIS FC has a mixed record of three wins and three losses in their recent games.
The chances for Over 2.5 goals stand at 30%, and both teams to score is at 38%. Ostersunds FK has expected goals of 1.14, while Varbergs BoIS FC has 0.77. A draw or a strong performance from Varbergs could challenge the predicted outcome. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC: model vs market
| Source | Ostersunds FK | Draw | Varbergs BoIS FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 34% | 24% |
| Market | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Published | 44% | 29% | 27% |
| Edge | -1% | +6% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.14 vs 0.77.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Ostersunds FK, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ostersunds FK | 2.06 | 2.08 | +0.03 |
| Draw | 3.31 | 3.31 | +0.00 |
| Varbergs BoIS FC | 3.27 | 3.29 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.91
- Attack rating (Ostersunds FK / Varbergs BoIS FC)
- 0.75 / 1.16
- Defence rating (Ostersunds FK / Varbergs BoIS FC)
- 0.51 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ostersunds FK goals. Columns: Varbergs BoIS FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 38%
- No goals (0–0)
- 16%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ostersunds FK | 44% | 2.28 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.42 | |
| Varbergs BoIS FC | 27% | 3.72 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 30% | 3.33 |
| Under 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38% | 2.63 |
| No | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ostersunds FK or draw) | 73% | 1.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Varbergs BoIS FC) | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ostersunds FK win by 2+ | 19% | 5.32 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC recent form
Ostersunds FK
2W 4D 0L
Varbergs BoIS FC
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ostersunds FK at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-4-1
- Win rate
- 58%
- Goals for / match
- 1.42
- Goals against / match
- 0.92
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 12
- They have won 11 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 24 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Varbergs BoIS FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-4-3
- Win rate
- 42%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.42
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 12
- They have won 12 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ostersunds FK at home only, Varbergs BoIS FC away only.
Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Ostersunds FK 1 · draws 1 · Varbergs BoIS FC 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | Varbergs BoIS FC | 1-2 | Ostersunds FK | Superettan |
| 2025-08-24 | Varbergs BoIS FC | 1-1 | Ostersunds FK | Superettan |
| 2025-05-11 | Ostersunds FK | 0-1 | Varbergs BoIS FC | Superettan |
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