Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Ostersunds FK	Draw	Varbergs BoIS FC
Model	43%	34%	24%
Market	45%	27%	27%
Published	44%	29%	27%
Edge	-1%	+2%	-1%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.14 vs 0.77.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Ostersunds FK, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 2.06Now 2.03 -0.03

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Ostersunds FK	2.06	2.03	-0.03
Draw	3.31	3.33	+0.01
Varbergs BoIS FC	3.27	3.33	+0.06

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.14Ostersunds FK

0.77Varbergs BoIS FC

Total expected goals: 1.91
Attack rating (Ostersunds FK / Varbergs BoIS FC): 0.75 / 1.16
Defence rating (Ostersunds FK / Varbergs BoIS FC): 0.51 / 0.98

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 16.1% 10.1% 4.4% 1.1% 0.3% 1 15.5% 14.3% 5.0% 1.3% 0.3% 2 9.6% 7.4% 2.9% 0.7% 0.2% 3 3.6% 2.8% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 1.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Ostersunds FK goals. Columns: Varbergs BoIS FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 84%

Over 1.5 58%

Over 2.5 30%

Over 3.5 13%

Both teams to score: 38%
No goals (0–0): 16%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Ostersunds FK	44%	2.25
	Draw	29%	3.45
	Varbergs BoIS FC	27%	3.77
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	30%	3.33
	Under 2.5	70%	1.43
Both teams to score	Yes	38%	2.63
	No	62%	1.61
Double chance	1X (Ostersunds FK or draw)	73%	1.36
	12 (either side)	71%	1.41
	X2 (draw or Varbergs BoIS FC)	56%	1.80
Handicap -1	Ostersunds FK win by 2+	19%	5.32
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC recent form

Ostersunds FK 2W 4D 0L

Varbergs BoIS FC 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Ostersunds FK at home

Record (W-D-L): 7-4-1
Win rate: 58%
Goals for / match: 1.42
Goals against / match: 0.92
Clean sheets: 5 of 12

They have won 11 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
They have kept 8 clean sheets in 25 matches.
They have failed to score in 5 of 25 matches.
39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Varbergs BoIS FC away

Record (W-D-L): 5-4-3
Win rate: 42%
Goals for / match: 1.75
Goals against / match: 1.42
Clean sheets: 2 of 12

They have won 13 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
They have kept 5 clean sheets in 25 matches.
They have failed to score in 6 of 25 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Ostersunds FK at home only, Varbergs BoIS FC away only.

Expected lineups

Ostersunds FK lineup · 3-4-3

12 R. Forsell
3 H. Azzi
14 S. Anyanwu
19 D. Widgren
28 Y. Adjoumani
16 A. Begić
17 C. Edwards
27 D. Miljanovic
8 E. Özkan
22 J. Ali
10 S. Marklund

Bench: M. Uppenberg, J. Westerberg, A. Qasem, Masllorens, G. Odenlind, A. Stensrud, D. Molls, M. Palomino, L. Bozickovic

Varbergs BoIS FC lineup · 4-3-3

29 K. Strindholm
5 E. Hellman
2 G. Broman
17 E. Tellgren
22 N. Dahlström
8 A. Winbo
15 N. Johansson
21 I. Vidjeskog
9 L. Shabani
14 O. Alfonsi
7 W. Ärlig

Bench: O. Ekman, H. Zackrisson, L. Kåhed, J. Lindner, J. Nilsson, O. Werner, L. Sibelius, O. Brynéus, S. Borgelin

Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Ostersunds FK 2 · draws 2 · Varbergs BoIS FC 6.

20% 20% 60%

Ostersunds FKDrawsVarbergs BoIS FC

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-04-06	Varbergs BoIS FC	1-2	Ostersunds FK	Superettan
2025-08-24	Varbergs BoIS FC	1-1	Ostersunds FK	Superettan
2025-05-11	Ostersunds FK	0-1	Varbergs BoIS FC	Superettan
2024-07-27	Ostersunds FK	2-1	Varbergs BoIS FC	Superettan
2024-04-13	Varbergs BoIS FC	2-0	Ostersunds FK	Superettan
2023-02-18	Varbergs BoIS FC	1-0	Ostersunds FK	Svenska Cupen
2021-10-30	Varbergs BoIS FC	3-0	Ostersunds FK	Allsvenskan
2021-05-02	Ostersunds FK	1-2	Varbergs BoIS FC	Allsvenskan
2020-11-22	Ostersunds FK	0-4	Varbergs BoIS FC	Allsvenskan
2020-08-02	Varbergs BoIS FC	1-1	Ostersunds FK	Allsvenskan

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Before and after this match

Ostersunds FK, next: Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK prediction
Varbergs BoIS FC, next: Varbergs BoIS FC v Helsingborg analysis