Orebro SK vs Ljungskile SK Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

Orebro SK vs Ljungskile SK: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Orebro SK	Draw	Ljungskile SK
Model	46%	25%	28%
Market	44%	26%	30%
Published	45%	26%	30%
Edge	+2%	-1%	-2%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 1.34.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
The market prices Orebro SK below the model: +2.2 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.14, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.

Orebro SK vs Ljungskile SK odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Orebro SK, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 2.03Now 2.09 +0.06

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Orebro SK	2.03	2.09	+0.06
Draw	3.56	3.54	-0.02
Ljungskile SK	3.15	3.07	-0.08

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Orebro SK and Ljungskile SK expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.76Orebro SK

1.34Ljungskile SK

Total expected goals: 3.10
Attack rating (Orebro SK / Ljungskile SK): 1.08 / 0.91
Defence rating (Orebro SK / Ljungskile SK): 1.12 / 1.05

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Orebro SK vs Ljungskile SK score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.5% 5.0% 4.1% 1.8% 0.8% 1 6.8% 11.7% 7.1% 3.2% 1.4% 2 6.9% 9.3% 6.3% 2.8% 1.3% 3 4.1% 5.5% 3.7% 1.7% 0.7% 4+ 2.7% 3.6% 2.4% 1.1% 0.5%

Rows: Orebro SK goals. Columns: Ljungskile SK goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Orebro SK vs Ljungskile SK goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%

Over 1.5 83%

Over 2.5 60%

Over 3.5 38%

Both teams to score: 62%
No goals (0–0): 6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Orebro SK vs Ljungskile SK

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Orebro SK	45%	2.24
	Draw	26%	3.87
	Ljungskile SK	30%	3.38
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	60%	1.67
	Under 2.5	40%	2.50
Both teams to score	Yes	62%	1.61
	No	38%	2.65
Double chance	1X (Orebro SK or draw)	70%	1.42
	12 (either side)	74%	1.35
	X2 (draw or Ljungskile SK)	55%	1.80
Handicap -1	Orebro SK win by 2+	26%	3.92
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
2	First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day Live betting around the clock 30+ markets on live events	Get offer
3	100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.	M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits Live in-play betting Android and iOS app	Get offer
4	200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day 30+ markets on live events 24/7 customer support	Get offer

18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.

Orebro SK and Ljungskile SK recent form

Orebro SK 2W 2D 2L

Ljungskile SK 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Orebro SK at home

Record (W-D-L): 3-4-5
Win rate: 25%
Goals for / match: 0.83
Goals against / match: 1.25
Clean sheets: 2 of 12

They have won 5 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
They have kept 6 clean sheets in 24 matches.
They have failed to score in 7 of 24 matches.

Ljungskile SK away

Record (W-D-L): 2-6-4
Win rate: 17%
Goals for / match: 1.42
Goals against / match: 1.42
Clean sheets: 2 of 12

They have won 7 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 24 matches.
They have failed to score in 9 of 24 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Orebro SK at home only, Ljungskile SK away only.

Orebro SK vs Ljungskile SK head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: Orebro SK 0 · draws 0 · Ljungskile SK 1.

0% 0% 100%

Orebro SKDrawsLjungskile SK

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-06-27	Ljungskile SK	3-2	Orebro SK	Superettan

Other Matchday 26 fixtures

Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken — team news & stats 2026-10-10
Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC 2026-10-10
Norrby IF v Osters IF — match page 2026-10-10
Oddevold vs United Nordic — team news & stats 2026-10-10
IFK Varnamo v Falkenbergs FF — match page 2026-10-11
IK brage vs Helsingborg — team news & stats 2026-10-11
IFK Norrkoping vs GIF Sundsvall 2026-10-13

Prediction snapshot Orebro SK to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on Orebro SK