Updated

Superettan · Matchday 26

Orebro SK vs Ljungskile SK

· Behrn Arena, Orebro· Referee Per Martin Melin

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Orebro SK to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Orebro SKDrawLjungskile SK

Orebro SK vs Ljungskile SK: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceOrebro SKDrawLjungskile SK
Model46%25%28%
Market45%26%30%
Published45%26%29%
Edge0%0%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 1.34.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Orebro SK vs Ljungskile SK odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Orebro SK, 15 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 2.03Now 2.06 +0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Orebro SK2.032.06+0.03
Draw3.563.60+0.04
Ljungskile SK3.153.11-0.04

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Orebro SK and Ljungskile SK expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.76Orebro SK
1.34Ljungskile SK
Total expected goals
3.11
Attack rating (Orebro SK / Ljungskile SK)
1.08 / 0.91
Defence rating (Orebro SK / Ljungskile SK)
1.12 / 1.05

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Orebro SK vs Ljungskile SK score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.5% 4.9% 4.0% 1.8% 0.8% 1 6.8% 11.7% 7.1% 3.2% 1.4% 2 7.0% 9.4% 6.3% 2.8% 1.3% 3 4.1% 5.5% 3.7% 1.6% 0.7% 4+ 2.7% 3.6% 2.4% 1.1% 0.5%

Rows: Orebro SK goals. Columns: Ljungskile SK goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Orebro SK vs Ljungskile SK goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 83%
Over 2.5 60%
Over 3.5 38%
Both teams to score
62%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Orebro SK vs Ljungskile SK

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Orebro SK45%2.21
Draw26%3.91
Ljungskile SK29%3.42
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.560%1.67
Under 2.540%2.50
Both teams to scoreYes62%1.61
No38%2.65
Double chance1X (Orebro SK or draw)71%1.41
12 (either side)74%1.34
X2 (draw or Ljungskile SK)55%1.82
Handicap -1Orebro SK win by 2+26%3.89
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Orebro SK and Ljungskile SK recent form

Orebro SK 2W 2D 2L
Ljungskile SK 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Orebro SK at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-4-5
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
0.83
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
2 of 12
  • They have won 5 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 25 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 25 matches.

Ljungskile SK away

Record (W-D-L)
2-6-4
Win rate
17%
Goals for / match
1.42
Goals against / match
1.42
Clean sheets
2 of 12
  • They have won 7 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 25 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 25 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Orebro SK at home only, Ljungskile SK away only.

Expected lineups

Orebro SK lineup · 5-3-2

  1. 75 J. Ojrzyński
  2. 99 Ahmed Yassin
  3. 32 J. Stenberg
  4. 3 V. Sandberg
  5. 19 J. Haliti
  6. 25 C. Amatkarijo
  7. 9 A. Yakoub
  8. 23 E. Rakip
  9. 7 S. Wikman
  10. 17 K. Holmberg
  11. 10 R. Wiedesheim-Paul

Bench: J. Ortmark, E. Ibrahimbegovic, M. Kusu, C. Redenstrand, D. Salihović, L. Astvald, H. Söderström, F. Wahlstrom, B. Runheim

Ljungskile SK lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 L. Eriksson
  2. 16 E. Reljanovic
  3. 69 I. Maric
  4. 60 G. Mensah
  5. 3 G. Johanstrommer Hedin
  6. 58 S. Adrian
  7. 14 D. Lagerlof
  8. 23 M. Uzel
  9. 11 S. Omar
  10. 27 A. Borén
  11. 99 L. Lindholm Corner

Bench: F. Örnblom, A. Rasheed, S. Högblom, D. Frisk, H. Borstam, E. Hedström, C. Hogg, D. Ljung

Orebro SK vs Ljungskile SK head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: Orebro SK 0 · draws 0 · Ljungskile SK 1.

Orebro SKDrawsLjungskile SK
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-06-27Ljungskile SK3-2Orebro SKSuperettan

Other Matchday 26 fixtures

Before and after this match