Updated

Superettan · Matchday 27

Ljungskile SK vs IK brage

· Skarsjövallen, Ljungskile· Referee Farouk Nehdi

Full time2 – 0

Alin prediction was Ljungskile SK to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Ljungskile SKDrawIK brage

Ljungskile SK vs IK brage: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLjungskile SKDrawIK brage
Model45%26%28%
Market44%25%31%
Published44%25%30%
Edge+1%+1%-3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 1.27.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Ljungskile SK vs IK brage odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Ljungskile SK, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-11.

Opened 1.92Now 2.10 +0.18
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Ljungskile SK1.922.10+0.18
Draw3.703.67-0.04
IK brage3.423.00-0.42

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Ljungskile SK and IK brage expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.66Ljungskile SK
1.27IK brage
Total expected goals
2.93
Attack rating (Ljungskile SK / IK brage)
0.90 / 0.95
Defence rating (Ljungskile SK / IK brage)
1.02 / 1.18

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Ljungskile SK vs IK brage score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.5% 5.6% 4.3% 1.8% 0.8% 1 7.7% 12.4% 7.1% 3.0% 1.3% 2 7.4% 9.3% 5.9% 2.5% 1.1% 3 4.1% 5.2% 3.3% 1.4% 0.6% 4+ 2.5% 3.1% 2.0% 0.8% 0.4%

Rows: Ljungskile SK goals. Columns: IK brage goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Ljungskile SK vs IK brage goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 56%
Over 3.5 34%
Both teams to score
59%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Ljungskile SK vs IK brage

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Ljungskile SK44%2.25
Draw25%3.92
IK brage30%3.32
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556%1.78
Under 2.544%2.28
Both teams to scoreYes59%1.68
No41%2.46
Double chance1X (Ljungskile SK or draw)70%1.43
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or IK brage)56%1.80
Handicap -1Ljungskile SK win by 2+24%4.09
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Ljungskile SK and IK brage recent form

Ljungskile SK 1W 2D 3L
IK brage 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Ljungskile SK at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-1-7
Win rate
38%
Goals for / match
1.23
Goals against / match
1.46
Clean sheets
1 of 13
  • They have won 7 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

IK brage away

Record (W-D-L)
3-3-7
Win rate
23%
Goals for / match
1.23
Goals against / match
1.77
Clean sheets
3 of 13
  • They have won 6 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
  • 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Ljungskile SK at home only, IK brage away only.

Expected lineups

Ljungskile SK lineup · 3-5-2

  1. 1 L. Eriksson
  2. 23 M. Uzel
  3. 60 G. Mensah
  4. 69 I. Maric
  5. 27 A. Borén
  6. 58 S. Adrian
  7. 71 D. Ljung
  8. 14 D. Lagerlof
  9. 16 E. Reljanovic
  10. 99 L. Lindholm Corner
  11. 19 E. Hedström

Bench: G. Johanstrommer Hedin, F. Örnblom, A. Rasheed, S. Omar, S. Högblom, W. Nilsson, D. Frisk, H. Borstam, C. Hogg

IK brage lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 V. Frodig
  2. 16 Y. Rafael
  3. 22 T. Stagaard
  4. 2 A. Zetterström
  5. 17 P. Jonsson
  6. 7 J. Stensson
  7. 6 Lasse Madsen
  8. 8 A. Sporrong
  9. 20 V. Ozor Okeke
  10. 11 A. Lundin
  11. 9 F. Trpcevski

Bench: L. Konjuhi, G. Berggren, A. Mortensen, J. Skille, M. Sise, A. Hellblom, A. Pihlström, G. Granström, J. Guadagno

Ljungskile SK vs IK brage head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: Ljungskile SK 1 · draws 1 · IK brage 1.

Ljungskile SKDrawsIK brage
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-06-09IK brage2-2Ljungskile SKSuperettan
2020-10-22IK brage0-1Ljungskile SKSuperettan
2020-07-08Ljungskile SK1-3IK brageSuperettan

Other Matchday 27 fixtures

Before and after this match