GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo preview
In the Superettan fixture between GIF Sundsvall and IFK Varnamo, the 1X2 probabilities show IFK Varnamo at 54%, compared to GIF Sundsvall's 22%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-2, with a 10% chance. The expected goals for GIF Sundsvall is 0.98, while IFK Varnamo has a higher expected goals figure of 2.04.
There is a 58% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance for both teams to score. Recent form indicates GIF Sundsvall has two wins in their last six matches, while IFK Varnamo has three wins in the same period. This could impact the outcome if GIF Sundsvall improves their scoring efficiency or if IFK Varnamo struggles to maintain their form.
GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo: model vs market
| Source | GIF Sundsvall | Draw | IFK Varnamo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16% | 23% | 61% |
| Market | 22% | 24% | 54% |
| Published | 21% | 24% | 55% |
| Edge | -6% | -1% | +7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 0.98.
- The market prices IFK Varnamo below the model: +7.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.74, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on IFK Varnamo, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| GIF Sundsvall | 3.62 | 4.12 | +0.50 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.88 | +0.28 |
| IFK Varnamo | 1.89 | 1.73 | -0.16 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
GIF Sundsvall and IFK Varnamo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.01
- Attack rating (GIF Sundsvall / IFK Varnamo)
- 0.61 / 1.09
- Defence rating (GIF Sundsvall / IFK Varnamo)
- 1.43 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: GIF Sundsvall goals. Columns: IFK Varnamo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | GIF Sundsvall | 21% | 4.77 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.24 | |
| IFK Varnamo | 55% | 1.80 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.81 |
| No | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Double chance | 1X (GIF Sundsvall or draw) | 45% | 2.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or IFK Varnamo) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| Handicap -1 | IFK Varnamo win by 2+ | 38% | 2.64 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
GIF Sundsvall and IFK Varnamo recent form
GIF Sundsvall
3W 0D 3L
IFK Varnamo
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
GIF Sundsvall at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-8
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.08
- Goals against / match
- 2.15
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 13
- They have won 6 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
IFK Varnamo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-0-7
- Win rate
- 46%
- Goals for / match
- 1.46
- Goals against / match
- 2.23
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 13
- They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: GIF Sundsvall at home only, IFK Varnamo away only.
GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: GIF Sundsvall 1 · draws 1 · IFK Varnamo 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-14 | IFK Varnamo | 3-0 | GIF Sundsvall | Superettan |
| 2022-10-19 | GIF Sundsvall | 1-2 | IFK Varnamo | Allsvenskan |
| 2022-07-11 | IFK Varnamo | 1-1 | GIF Sundsvall | Allsvenskan |
| 2021-08-14 | GIF Sundsvall | 2-0 | IFK Varnamo | Superettan |
| 2021-04-18 | IFK Varnamo | 2-1 | GIF Sundsvall | Superettan |
Other Matchday 27 fixtures
- Ljungskile SK v IK brage — match page 2026-10-17
- Falkenbergs FF vs Landskrona BoIS 2026-10-17
- Sandviken v Ostersunds FK — match page 2026-10-17
- Osters IF vs Oddevold 2026-10-17
- United Nordic vs Norrby IF — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Varbergs BoIS FC vs Helsingborg — team news & stats 2026-10-19
- IFK Norrkoping vs Orebro SK — team news & stats 2026-10-20
Before and after this match
- GIF Sundsvall, previous: IFK Norrkoping – GIF Sundsvall, 2026-10-13
- GIF Sundsvall, next: Oddevold – GIF Sundsvall, 2026-10-23
- IFK Varnamo, previous: IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF: odds and pick
- IFK Varnamo, next: IFK Varnamo – Sandviken, 2026-10-24