IFK Norrkoping vs Orebro SK preview
In the Superettan fixture between IFK Norrkoping and Orebro SK, the 1X2 probabilities show IFK Norrkoping at 61% and Orebro SK at 18%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 12% chance, indicating a strong expectation for Norrkoping to win comfortably.
While Norrkoping's recent form is impressive with 5 wins and 1 draw, Orebro SK has struggled, recording 1 win in their last 5 matches. The model suggests a 63% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance for both teams to score, which could change if Orebro SK improves their attacking play.
IFK Norrkoping vs Orebro SK: model vs market
| Source | IFK Norrkoping | Draw | Orebro SK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 75% | 17% | 8% |
| Market | 53% | 24% | 23% |
| Published | 58% | 22% | 19% |
| Edge | +22% | -7% | -15% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.50 vs 0.75.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices IFK Norrkoping below the model: +22.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.85, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
IFK Norrkoping vs Orebro SK odds movement
Median bookmaker price on IFK Norrkoping, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-14.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| IFK Norrkoping | 1.65 | 1.75 | +0.10 |
| Draw | 4.05 | 3.82 | -0.23 |
| Orebro SK | 4.33 | 4.00 | -0.33 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
IFK Norrkoping and Orebro SK expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.24
- Attack rating (IFK Norrkoping / Orebro SK)
- 1.46 / 1.05
- Defence rating (IFK Norrkoping / Orebro SK)
- 0.55 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
IFK Norrkoping vs Orebro SK score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: IFK Norrkoping goals. Columns: Orebro SK goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
IFK Norrkoping vs Orebro SK goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for IFK Norrkoping vs Orebro SK
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | IFK Norrkoping | 58% | 1.72 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.48 | |
| Orebro SK | 19% | 5.16 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.04 |
| No | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Double chance | 1X (IFK Norrkoping or draw) | 81% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Orebro SK) | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Handicap -1 | IFK Norrkoping win by 2+ | 53% | 1.87 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
IFK Norrkoping and Orebro SK recent form
IFK Norrkoping
4W 2D 0L
Orebro SK
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
IFK Norrkoping at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-3-2
- Win rate
- 62%
- Goals for / match
- 2.15
- Goals against / match
- 0.62
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 13
- They have won 17 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Orebro SK away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-5-6
- Win rate
- 15%
- Goals for / match
- 1.31
- Goals against / match
- 1.85
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 13
- They have won 5 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 25 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: IFK Norrkoping at home only, Orebro SK away only.
IFK Norrkoping vs Orebro SK head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: IFK Norrkoping 0 · draws 0 · Orebro SK 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | Orebro SK | 2-1 | IFK Norrkoping | Superettan |
Other Matchday 27 fixtures
- Ljungskile SK v IK brage — match page 2026-10-17
- Falkenbergs FF vs Landskrona BoIS 2026-10-17
- Sandviken v Ostersunds FK — match page 2026-10-17
- Osters IF vs Oddevold 2026-10-17
- United Nordic vs Norrby IF — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- GIF Sundsvall v IFK Varnamo — match page 2026-10-18
- Varbergs BoIS FC vs Helsingborg — team news & stats 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- IFK Norrkoping, previous: IFK Norrkoping – GIF Sundsvall, 2026-10-13
- Orebro SK, previous: Orebro SK v Ljungskile SK analysis