IFK Norrkoping vs GIF Sundsvall Prediction & Betting Tips 13/10/2026

IFK Norrkoping vs GIF Sundsvall: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	IFK Norrkoping	Draw	GIF Sundsvall
Model	84%	12%	4%
Market	79%	13%	8%
Published	80%	13%	7%
Edge	+1%	0%	-1%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.77 vs 0.49.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

IFK Norrkoping vs GIF Sundsvall odds movement

Median bookmaker price on IFK Norrkoping, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-08.

Opened 1.19Now 1.17 -0.02

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
IFK Norrkoping	1.19	1.17	-0.02
Draw	6.35	7.00	+0.65
GIF Sundsvall	11.45	12.20	+0.75

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

IFK Norrkoping and GIF Sundsvall expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.77IFK Norrkoping

0.49GIF Sundsvall

Total expected goals: 3.27
Attack rating (IFK Norrkoping / GIF Sundsvall): 1.34 / 0.65
Defence rating (IFK Norrkoping / GIF Sundsvall): 0.58 / 1.33

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

IFK Norrkoping vs GIF Sundsvall score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.3% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 1 10.1% 5.7% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 2 14.7% 7.2% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 3 13.6% 6.7% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 4+ 18.5% 9.1% 2.2% 0.4% 0.0%

Rows: IFK Norrkoping goals. Columns: GIF Sundsvall goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

IFK Norrkoping vs GIF Sundsvall goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%

Over 1.5 84%

Over 2.5 63%

Over 3.5 41%

Both teams to score: 37%
No goals (0–0): 4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for IFK Norrkoping vs GIF Sundsvall

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	IFK Norrkoping	80%	1.24
	Draw	13%	7.72
	GIF Sundsvall	7%	15.06
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	63%	1.58
	Under 2.5	37%	2.73
Both teams to score	Yes	37%	2.71
	No	63%	1.58
Double chance	1X (IFK Norrkoping or draw)	93%	1.07
	12 (either side)	87%	1.15
	X2 (draw or GIF Sundsvall)	20%	5.10
Handicap -1	IFK Norrkoping win by 2+	65%	1.54
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

IFK Norrkoping and GIF Sundsvall recent form

IFK Norrkoping 4W 2D 0L

GIF Sundsvall 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

IFK Norrkoping at home

Record (W-D-L): 7-3-2
Win rate: 58%
Goals for / match: 2.00
Goals against / match: 0.67
Clean sheets: 7 of 12

They have won 17 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
They have kept 13 clean sheets in 25 matches.
They have failed to score in 4 of 25 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

GIF Sundsvall away

Record (W-D-L): 2-0-10
Win rate: 17%
Goals for / match: 0.42
Goals against / match: 2.08
Clean sheets: 2 of 12

They have won 6 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 25 matches.
They have failed to score in 12 of 25 matches.
They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: IFK Norrkoping at home only, GIF Sundsvall away only.

Expected lineups

IFK Norrkoping lineup · 4-3-3

1 T. Krantz
38 T. Sandberg
23 A. Opsahl
24 A. Eriksson
37 M. Neffati
34 N. Sernelius
6 V. Christiansson
7 A. Fransson
11 E. Jemal
5 C. Nyman
8 R. Nelson

Bench: J. Weber, T. Prica, A. Aleksanjan, Í. Sigurgeirsson, L. Lif, A. Brönner, F. Dagerstål, F. Holst-Larsen, D. Mitov Nilsson

GIF Sundsvall lineup · 4-4-2

1 J. Olsson
5 A. Atlee Manneh
4 J. Hedenquist
17 N. Eriksson
18 L. Forsberg
19 E. Gojani
21 L. Nåvik
6 Marc Manchón
16 E. Hansson
9 T. Kagayama
29 K. Sulaiman

Bench: M. Hallin, Miguel Sandberg, A. Demirol, Shalom Ekong, Jeremiah Björnler, E. Carrick, A. Bahtijar, J. Mambu, W. Bjuhr

IFK Norrkoping vs GIF Sundsvall head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: IFK Norrkoping 6 · draws 4 · GIF Sundsvall 0.

60% 40% 0%

IFK NorrkopingDrawsGIF Sundsvall

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-05-09	GIF Sundsvall	1-3	IFK Norrkoping	Superettan
2022-10-02	GIF Sundsvall	1-3	IFK Norrkoping	Allsvenskan
2022-05-15	IFK Norrkoping	5-1	GIF Sundsvall	Allsvenskan
2021-02-20	IFK Norrkoping	2-0	GIF Sundsvall	Svenska Cupen
2019-10-05	GIF Sundsvall	4-4	IFK Norrkoping	Allsvenskan
2019-05-20	IFK Norrkoping	2-0	GIF Sundsvall	Allsvenskan
2018-08-06	GIF Sundsvall	1-1	IFK Norrkoping	Allsvenskan
2018-05-23	IFK Norrkoping	1-0	GIF Sundsvall	Allsvenskan
2017-10-22	GIF Sundsvall	2-2	IFK Norrkoping	Allsvenskan
2017-05-08	IFK Norrkoping	0-0	GIF Sundsvall	Allsvenskan

Other Matchday 26 fixtures

Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken — team news & stats 2026-10-10
Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC 2026-10-10
Norrby IF v Osters IF — match page 2026-10-10
Oddevold vs United Nordic — team news & stats 2026-10-10
Orebro SK vs Ljungskile SK 2026-10-11
IFK Varnamo v Falkenbergs FF — match page 2026-10-11
IK brage vs Helsingborg — team news & stats 2026-10-11

Before and after this match

IFK Norrkoping, next: IFK Norrkoping vs Orebro SK: odds and pick
GIF Sundsvall, next: GIF Sundsvall v IFK Varnamo analysis