IFK Norrkoping vs GIF Sundsvall: model vs market
| Source | IFK Norrkoping | Draw | GIF Sundsvall |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 84% | 12% | 4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 84% | 12% | 4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.76 vs 0.49.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
IFK Norrkoping and GIF Sundsvall expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.26
- Attack rating (IFK Norrkoping / GIF Sundsvall)
- 1.34 / 0.65
- Defence rating (IFK Norrkoping / GIF Sundsvall)
- 0.58 / 1.33
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
IFK Norrkoping vs GIF Sundsvall score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: IFK Norrkoping goals. Columns: GIF Sundsvall goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
IFK Norrkoping vs GIF Sundsvall goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 37%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for IFK Norrkoping vs GIF Sundsvall
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | IFK Norrkoping | 84% | 1.19 |
| Draw | 12% | 8.18 | |
| GIF Sundsvall | 4% | 26.08 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37% | 2.71 |
| No | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Double chance | 1X (IFK Norrkoping or draw) | 96% | 1.04 |
| 12 (either side) | 88% | 1.14 | |
| X2 (draw or GIF Sundsvall) | 16% | 6.22 | |
| Handicap -1 | IFK Norrkoping win by 2+ | 65% | 1.55 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
IFK Norrkoping and GIF Sundsvall recent form
IFK Norrkoping
4W 2D 0L
GIF Sundsvall
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
IFK Norrkoping at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-2
- Win rate
- 58%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 12
- They have won 16 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
GIF Sundsvall away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-10
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.42
- Goals against / match
- 2.08
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 12
- They have won 5 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 24 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: IFK Norrkoping at home only, GIF Sundsvall away only.
IFK Norrkoping vs GIF Sundsvall head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: IFK Norrkoping 1 · draws 0 · GIF Sundsvall 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | GIF Sundsvall | 1-3 | IFK Norrkoping | Superettan |
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