FC Aarau vs FC WIL 1900 preview
In the Challenge League fixture between FC Aarau and FC WIL 1900, the 1X2 probabilities show FC Aarau at 52% and FC WIL 1900 at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance according to our model. FC Aarau has an expected goals figure of 2.18, while FC WIL 1900 sits at 1.48.
Both teams to score has a 69% likelihood, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 71%. Recent form indicates FC Aarau with a W-L-W-L-L-D record, while FC WIL 1900 has L-D-W-D-W-L. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome. These factors could lead to unexpected results, particularly given the head-to-head record of 2 wins for each team and 6 draws in their last 10 encounters.
FC Aarau vs FC WIL 1900: model vs market
| Source | FC Aarau | Draw | FC WIL 1900 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 22% | 25% |
| Market | 52% | 24% | 24% |
| Published | 52% | 23% | 25% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.18 vs 1.48.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.82, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
FC Aarau vs FC WIL 1900 odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Aarau, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Aarau | 1.74 | 1.75 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 3.86 | 3.86 | +0.00 |
| FC WIL 1900 | 3.85 | 3.73 | -0.13 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Aarau and FC WIL 1900 expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.67
- Attack rating (FC Aarau / FC WIL 1900)
- 1.11 / 1.01
- Defence rating (FC Aarau / FC WIL 1900)
- 1.04 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Aarau vs FC WIL 1900 score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Aarau goals. Columns: FC WIL 1900 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Aarau vs FC WIL 1900 goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Aarau vs FC WIL 1900
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Aarau | 52% | 1.92 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.31 | |
| FC WIL 1900 | 25% | 4.07 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.44 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.44 |
| No | 31% | 3.27 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Aarau or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or FC WIL 1900) | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Aarau win by 2+ | 33% | 3.07 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC Aarau and FC WIL 1900 recent form
FC Aarau
2W 1D 3L
FC WIL 1900
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Aarau at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
FC WIL 1900 away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-2
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Aarau at home only, FC WIL 1900 away only.
FC Aarau vs FC WIL 1900 head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: FC Aarau 2 · draws 6 · FC WIL 1900 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | FC WIL 1900 | 2-2 | FC Aarau | Challenge League |
| 2026-04-25 | FC WIL 1900 | 2-2 | FC Aarau | Challenge League |
| 2026-02-07 | FC Aarau | 2-2 | FC WIL 1900 | Challenge League |
| 2025-10-24 | FC Aarau | 2-0 | FC WIL 1900 | Challenge League |
| 2025-08-01 | FC WIL 1900 | 1-3 | FC Aarau | Challenge League |
| 2025-05-09 | FC Aarau | 2-4 | FC WIL 1900 | Challenge League |
| 2025-03-16 | FC WIL 1900 | 2-2 | FC Aarau | Challenge League |
| 2024-11-24 | FC Aarau | 1-1 | FC WIL 1900 | Challenge League |
| 2024-07-26 | FC WIL 1900 | 2-2 | FC Aarau | Challenge League |
| 2024-05-17 | FC Aarau | 0-4 | FC WIL 1900 | Challenge League |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- SC Kriens v Rapperswil — match page 2026-11-06
- Stade Nyonnais vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- FC Winterthur vs Étoile Carouge 2026-11-07
- Yverdon Sport vs Neuchatel Xamax FC 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- FC Aarau, previous: Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Aarau: odds and pick
- FC WIL 1900, previous: FC WIL 1900 vs FC Winterthur prediction