Stade Nyonnais vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy preview
In the Challenge League fixture between Stade Nyonnais and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, the 1X2 probabilities show Stade Nyonnais at 13% and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 69%. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, occurring at a rate of 12%. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy has been in better recent form, with 4 wins and 2 draws in their last 6 matches, while Stade Nyonnais has 2 wins and 4 losses.
The model predicts a high chance of Over 2.5 goals at 67%, and both teams to score sits at 48%. A potential factor that could disrupt these predictions is Stade Nyonnais’s ability to outperform their expected goals of 0.69, especially given their recent mixed results.
Stade Nyonnais vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy: model vs market
| Source | Stade Nyonnais | Draw | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 6% | 14% | 80% |
| Market | 14% | 19% | 67% |
| Published | 12% | 18% | 70% |
| Edge | -2% | -1% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.77 vs 0.69.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Stade Lausanne-Ouchy below our published probability: +3.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.39, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Stade Nyonnais vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, 12 snapshots since 2026-11-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Nyonnais | 6.32 | 6.70 | +0.38 |
| Draw | 4.60 | 4.72 | +0.12 |
| Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 1.40 | 1.36 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Stade Nyonnais and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.47
- Attack rating (Stade Nyonnais / Stade Lausanne-Ouchy)
- 0.83 / 1.35
- Defence rating (Stade Nyonnais / Stade Lausanne-Ouchy)
- 1.46 / 0.50
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Stade Nyonnais vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Stade Nyonnais goals. Columns: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Stade Nyonnais vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Stade Nyonnais vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stade Nyonnais | 12% | 8.52 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.57 | |
| Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 70% | 1.42 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.06 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.10 |
| No | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Stade Nyonnais or draw) | 30% | 3.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or Stade Lausanne-Ouchy) | 88% | 1.13 | |
| Handicap -1 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win by 2+ | 60% | 1.65 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Stade Nyonnais and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy recent form
Stade Nyonnais
2W 0D 4L
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Stade Nyonnais at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 8 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Stade Nyonnais at home only, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away only.
Stade Nyonnais vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Stade Nyonnais 2 · draws 2 · Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 2-0 | Stade Nyonnais | Challenge League |
| 2026-05-11 | Stade Nyonnais | 1-3 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | Challenge League |
| 2026-03-14 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 1-1 | Stade Nyonnais | Challenge League |
| 2025-11-01 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 3-3 | Stade Nyonnais | Challenge League |
| 2025-09-12 | Stade Nyonnais | 1-2 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | Challenge League |
| 2025-04-26 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 0-1 | Stade Nyonnais | Challenge League |
| 2025-02-21 | Stade Nyonnais | 3-0 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | Challenge League |
| 2024-11-08 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 6-2 | Stade Nyonnais | Challenge League |
| 2024-08-30 | Stade Nyonnais | 0-3 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | Challenge League |
| 2022-01-21 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 4-1 | Stade Nyonnais | Friendlies Clubs |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- SC Kriens v Rapperswil — match page 2026-11-06
- FC Aarau vs FC WIL 1900 — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- FC Winterthur vs Étoile Carouge 2026-11-07
- Yverdon Sport vs Neuchatel Xamax FC 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Stade Nyonnais, previous: Rapperswil – Stade Nyonnais, 2026-10-30
- Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, previous: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy v Yverdon Sport analysis