Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Yverdon Sport preview
In the Challenge League fixture, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy has a 54% probability to win against Yverdon Sport, who has a 16% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with an expected goals of 1.42 for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy compared to 0.65 for Yverdon Sport.
However, the confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty in the prediction. Both teams have shown strong recent form, with Yverdon Sport winning 4 of their last 6 matches. Additionally, the probabilities for Over 2.5 goals is 34% and both teams to score is 38%, suggesting a low-scoring match is more likely.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Yverdon Sport: model vs market
| Source | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | Draw | Yverdon Sport |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 27% | 17% |
| Market | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| Published | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Edge | +3% | 0% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 0.77.
- The market prices Stade Lausanne-Ouchy below our published probability: +3.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.18, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Yverdon Sport odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 2.13 | 2.13 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.52 | 3.52 | +0.00 |
| Yverdon Sport | 2.92 | 2.92 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Yverdon Sport expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.37
- Attack rating (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy / Yverdon Sport)
- 1.30 / 1.36
- Defence rating (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy / Yverdon Sport)
- 0.41 / 0.74
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Yverdon Sport score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy goals. Columns: Yverdon Sport goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Yverdon Sport goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Yverdon Sport
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 46% | 2.17 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.81 | |
| Yverdon Sport | 28% | 3.62 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.36 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.27 |
| No | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy or draw) | 72% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Yverdon Sport) | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Handicap -1 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win by 2+ | 31% | 3.24 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Yverdon Sport recent form
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
4W 2D 0L
Yverdon Sport
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-0
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Yverdon Sport away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at home only, Yverdon Sport away only.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Yverdon Sport head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 4 · draws 2 · Yverdon Sport 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Yverdon Sport | 0-0 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | Challenge League |
| 2026-04-26 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 0-3 | Yverdon Sport | Challenge League |
| 2026-03-08 | Yverdon Sport | 0-2 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | Challenge League |
| 2025-12-13 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 4-0 | Yverdon Sport | Challenge League |
| 2025-08-03 | Yverdon Sport | 3-2 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | Challenge League |
| 2024-05-11 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 3-1 | Yverdon Sport | Super League |
| 2024-04-20 | Yverdon Sport | 3-0 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | Super League |
| 2023-12-10 | Yverdon Sport | 2-1 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | Super League |
| 2023-09-28 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 1-1 | Yverdon Sport | Super League |
| 2023-05-19 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 4-1 | Yverdon Sport | Challenge League |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Rapperswil vs Stade Nyonnais — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Aarau 2026-10-30
- Étoile Carouge v SC Kriens — match page 2026-10-30
- FC WIL 1900 v FC Winterthur — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, previous: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy – Neuchatel Xamax FC, 2026-10-23
- Yverdon Sport, previous: Yverdon Sport v SC Kriens analysis