Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Aarau preview
In the Challenge League fixture between Neuchatel Xamax FC and FC Aarau, the 1X2 probabilities show a close contest with Neuchatel Xamax FC at 37% and FC Aarau at 38%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.69 for Neuchatel Xamax FC and 1.32 for FC Aarau.
Both teams to score stands at 61%, indicating a strong chance of goals from both sides. However, Neuchatel Xamax FC's recent form shows 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while FC Aarau has 2 wins in their last 6, which could impact the outcome. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the predictions.
Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Aarau: model vs market
| Source | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Draw | FC Aarau |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 26% | 29% |
| Market | 34% | 24% | 41% |
| Published | 37% | 25% | 38% |
| Edge | +3% | 0% | -3% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.24, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -14.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Aarau odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Aarau, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Neuchatel Xamax FC | 2.67 | 2.67 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.73 | 3.73 | +0.00 |
| FC Aarau | 2.20 | 2.20 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Neuchatel Xamax FC and FC Aarau expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.01
- Attack rating (Neuchatel Xamax FC / FC Aarau)
- 0.95 / 1.01
- Defence rating (Neuchatel Xamax FC / FC Aarau)
- 0.95 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Aarau score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Neuchatel Xamax FC goals. Columns: FC Aarau goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Aarau goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Aarau
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 37% | 2.72 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.03 | |
| FC Aarau | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.64 |
| No | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Neuchatel Xamax FC or draw) | 62% | 1.62 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Aarau) | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Aarau win by 2+ | 13% | 7.65 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Neuchatel Xamax FC and FC Aarau recent form
Neuchatel Xamax FC
3W 1D 2L
FC Aarau
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Neuchatel Xamax FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
FC Aarau away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.20
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Neuchatel Xamax FC at home only, FC Aarau away only.
Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Aarau head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Neuchatel Xamax FC 2 · draws 1 · FC Aarau 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | FC Aarau | 2-1 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Challenge League |
| 2026-05-01 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 1-3 | FC Aarau | Challenge League |
| 2026-03-21 | FC Aarau | 1-0 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Challenge League |
| 2025-11-28 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 1-2 | FC Aarau | Challenge League |
| 2025-08-09 | FC Aarau | 2-0 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Challenge League |
| 2025-04-11 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 1-1 | FC Aarau | Challenge League |
| 2025-03-07 | FC Aarau | 2-0 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Challenge League |
| 2024-12-13 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 1-3 | FC Aarau | Challenge League |
| 2024-08-03 | FC Aarau | 1-3 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Challenge League |
| 2024-04-12 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 3-1 | FC Aarau | Challenge League |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Rapperswil vs Stade Nyonnais — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Yverdon Sport 2026-10-30
- Étoile Carouge v SC Kriens — match page 2026-10-30
- FC WIL 1900 v FC Winterthur — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Neuchatel Xamax FC, previous: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy – Neuchatel Xamax FC, 2026-10-23
- FC Aarau, previous: FC Aarau v Étoile Carouge analysis